By the end of the season, most of the College Football Playoff contenders’ 12 or 13 games will seem, in retrospect, like insignificant and anonymous blowouts of weaker opposition. But a few games will prove defining for who was beaten,
By the end of the season, most of the College Football Playoff contenders’ 12 or 13 games will seem, in retrospect, like insignificant and anonymous blowouts of weaker opposition. But a few games will prove defining for who was beaten, and where and how. These games will be crucial in deciding who gets in and who is left out of the four-team postseason.
Based on preseason rankings (as well as the far more knowable structure of college football, in which the best way to get to the playoff is to qualify for a conference championship game), it is not difficult to discern which games will come to be seen as turning points. Not including the conference championships, which will be played Dec. 1 and 2, here are 10 games to anticipate, starting with one matchup Saturday.
Today
Alabama vs. Florida State
This game, featuring the top-ranked Crimson Tide and the third-ranked Seminoles, is the marquee early intersectional matchup (although there are others, including No. 7 Oklahoma’s trip to No. 2 Ohio State next week). But because these games are so early, and because they feature top teams from four power conferences, a bad performance could put the loser on its back foot, with less margin for error the rest of the way.
Sept. 9
Boise State at Washington State
A perennial question is whether a team from the lower-profile Group of Five conferences can ever break into the playoff. Such a team almost certainly would need to go 13-0, with a win or two against good Power 5 competition. The best (if still unlikely) bet this year is a seasoned party-crasher: Boise State.
Sept. 30
Northwestern at Wisconsin
The de facto Big Ten West Division championship game comes in Madison, Wisconsin, in the season’s first month. Unlike the East, where Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State are gathered, the West’s best chance to send a team to the playoff is by winning the division, then picking off the East champion in the conference title game.
Oct. 14
Oklahoma vs. Texas
This Red River Rivalry game is as good a bet as any for determining Big 12 pecking order. But this year’s arrives with a bonus: Both teams have first-year head coaches (Tom Herman and Lincoln Riley, the first time that has happened since 1947, Bud Wilkinson’s first year with the Sooners).
Oct. 28
Penn State at Ohio State
It is not as simple as saying the winner has punched its ticket to the playoff: Last year, it was the loser, Ohio State, that got to go. Still, if the Nittany Lions can win in Columbus and otherwise avoid trouble in the Big Ten’s East Division, they will have an extremely strong case. Note: Michigan travels to Penn State and hosts Ohio State this season.
Nov. 4
Virginia Tech at Miami
More division math: The winner of the Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division is likely to get a chance to face an extremely good team (Clemson? Florida State?) in the conference title game. These are the two most probable contenders for that title shot.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
The Bedlam game was moved up from its typical spot in the regular season’s final week to minimize the risk that the Big 12 championship game, already guaranteed to be a rematch in the league’s one-division structure, did not simply replay a game from the previous week. That is how likely schedulers thought it was that the Sooner State would supply both entrants.
Nov. 10
Washington at Stanford
Much of the Pacific-12 attention is focused on Southern California and its Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback, Sam Darnold, and rightly so. But the Huskies return quarterback Jake Browning, who led them to the College Football Playoff last year, and Stanford figures to challenge as well. Moreover, the winner is in pole position to win the North Division, and for all that aforementioned USC hype, it is the North winner that has won every Pac-12 title game since its inception in 2011.
Nov. 11
Florida State at Clemson
Chaos could happen in the ACC Atlantic Division … but probably not. The winner of this annual game has eventually taken the ACC championship the last six seasons, and it has also made at least the national semifinals in the last four years.
Nov. 25
Alabama at Auburn
The Southeastern Conference West Division (well, the whole conference) is still all about who can beat Alabama. This season, while the Crimson Tide will host Louisiana State, they will go on the road for the Iron Bowl against Auburn. So this rivalry game could be the best chance to knock them off. This game’s victor has won every SEC title since 2009, except for 2011 — when the winner (Alabama) still won the national championship.
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