In college football, the rich generally get richer, but not before they are briefly impoverished. ADVERTISING In college football, the rich generally get richer, but not before they are briefly impoverished. The perpetual personnel churn in the college game gives
In college football, the rich generally get richer, but not before they are briefly impoverished.
The perpetual personnel churn in the college game gives the coaches who are around for the long haul an annual opportunity to reload their rosters. It also gives them, one imagines, a persistent worry that they will discover that their biggest stars, having departed for the riches of the NFL, are irreplaceable.
Though this drama is ever-present around successful college programs, there is one day of the year when teams and their fans experience it most intensely: national signing day, when high school prospects can sign binding commitments to a given program. For the class of 2016, that day is today.
Michigan, coming off a 10-3 record in its first season under coach Jim Harbaugh, is hoping to catapult itself to the top of the recruiting game. Harbaugh’s sleepovers and the presence of Derek Jeter and Tom Brady at a signing day ceremony in Ann Arbor could help. Most useful, however, would be a signature from the country’s top-rated player, defensive tackle Rashan Gary of New Jersey’s Paramus Catholic.
Louisiana State expects another top recruiting class, which may be the only thing that saves coach Les Miles, who was nearly fired at the end of last season.
But the highest-stakes high-wire act being performed Wednesday will be in Columbus, Ohio, where Ohio State has lost nine underclassmen who have declared for the NFL draft, part of a staggering talent exodus that almost requires that the Buckeyes emerge from Wednesday with the country’s top signing class.
For all the official visits that students make and flattering letters that coach Urban Meyer writes, Ohio State’s best advertisement, according to Josh Helmholdt, a Midwest recruiting analyst for Rivals.com, was last year’s national championship. And precisely because that title came a year ago, now is the moment to expect Ohio State to reap its benefits.
“A positive season always affects the next class more than the current class,” Helmholdt said, “because the current class has already developed their opinions.”
He added: “The current juniors and even current sophomores — those are the guys that you impact the most by having a season like Ohio State did in 2014-2015. And obviously, kids want to play for championships.”
Only when the dust settles on Wednesday evening will the teams that came out on top be revealed, but the three main recruiting sites consider Ohio State well positioned to scoop up the nation’s best recruiting class. Also sitting pretty are LSU, Mississippi, Florida State and — in a surprise to no one — Alabama.
But players’ transience can also make it more difficult for coaches to win on the days on which they are paid to win. Those come in November, December and January, not February.
“The two things that impact you the most, other than injuries, are assistant coaches leaving every year and the fact that you have guys leaving your program that are your best players, usually your leadership in the dressing room,” said Mack Brown, the former Texas coach, who won one national title and played for another.
He added, “Normally the teams with the best leadership in your senior class and the best quarterback are going to win.”
Players who depart after they have fulfilled NFL requirements — essentially they must be three years removed from high school — but who still have a season or more of college eligibility remaining can be particularly backbreaking losses for coaches, especially if they thought those players would stick around another year.
The nine Ohio State players with remaining eligibility who have been approved for the draft are one short of the record of 10 produced by LSU’s 2012 team. And the latest NFL.com mock draft shows six Buckeyes going in the first round, which would tie Miami’s record from 2004.
“We have some young people — some fourth-year guys, two who have graduated — who have a national championship and have decided to chase their dreams,” Meyer told reporters last month.
Among them are Ezekiel Elliott, a running back who was a contender for the Heisman Trophy; Joey Bosa, a defensive end who is projected to be selected in the top 10; and Cardale Jones, the onetime backup quarterback who led the Buckeyes to overwhelming victories in the 2014 Big Ten championship game, and then the Sugar Bowl and national championship game.
The list also includes talented defenders like cornerback Eli Apple and linebacker Darron Lee, and pass catchers like Jalin Marshall and Michael Thomas.
Also leaving are two talented seniors: Taylor Decker, an offensive lineman probably headed for the first round, and Braxton Miller, a two-time Big Ten offensive Player of the Year at quarterback who converted to halfback for his final season.
As big a blow as these losses should be to Ohio State on the field, Helmholdt argued that they actually could benefit the Buckeyes in recruiting.
“Losing early entrants only helps,” he said, “because it opens roster spots and shows recruits there is space to come contribute.”
In contrast, Alabama lost only two players with eligibility remaining: running back Derrick Henry, who is fresh off a Heisman-winning campaign, and A’Shawn Robinson, a 320-pound defensive lineman who gives new meaning to the word “imposing.”
Theoretically, this should hurt Alabama coach Nick Saban’s recruiting, and indeed he seems poised to finish with merely a top-five class this year.
But instead of clearing out room for new blood, Saban retained numerous key contributors to last year’s team, which won the Crimson Tide’s fourth national title in seven seasons. The returnees include the title game’s offensive and defensive most valuable players, tight end O.J. Howard and safety Eddie Jackson. Both are juniors and might have been first-round picks.
In other words, save the tears you might have shed for Alabama.
