Tropical Storm Kilo weakened to a depression Friday afternoon, however, forecasters say a combination of very warm water and weakening shear should allow the storm to reach hurricane strength. ADVERTISING Tropical Storm Kilo weakened to a depression Friday afternoon, however,
Tropical Storm Kilo weakened to a depression Friday afternoon, however, forecasters say a combination of very warm water and weakening shear should allow the storm to reach hurricane strength.
Kilo, which reached tropical storm strength early Friday before being weakened by 9 mph vertical shear, is expected to restrengthen to a tropical storm Saturday evening as it encounters 84-degree waters, which are expected to become warmer, and diminishing shear, Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecasters said.
“Shear is going to continue to decrease as Kilo moves to the northwest. There is going to become a point where there is very little shear allowing Kilo to strengthen over the next few days,” said Eric Lau, a National Weather Service meteorologist.
On its current forecast track, which has some level of uncertainty, Tropical Depression Kilo is expected to pass more than 500 miles south of the Big Island late Friday and Saturday. As of 5 p.m. Friday, the weather system was located 545 miles south of Kailua-Kona. Circulating 35 mph winds, the sixth named storm of the 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season, was tracking west-northwest at 14 mph.
Rainfall is going to be the largest threat to the state’s southernmost island, however, as the storm restrengthens, there is a 1 percent chance of tropical storm force winds impacting Kailua-Kona on Sunday and 2 percent chance on Monday. That chance increases to 6 percent on Tuesday, according to forecasters.
“The main impact over the next couple of days for the Big Island is going to be that threat of continued flash flooding,” said Chris Brenchley, NOAA warning coordination meteorologist, who estimated rainfall totals could range between 5 to 10 inches, depending on location. “There is a lot of moisture and it’s pretty widespread. Even with the storm moving far off the south of the island, it’s still a concern.”
A flood watch goes into effect at 6 p.m. Saturday for the Big Island. Forecasters cautioned campers and hikers to consider rescheduling outings this weekend amid the threat of inclement weather.
Lau added that leeward areas should be particularly vigilant in the wake of flash flooding earlier this week that resulted in the rescue of 14 people on a tour, evacuations and road closures.
“A lot of the soils and the ground are already saturated, so, the extra rain could cause some additional problems,” he said.
The western side of the Big Island could also see some high surf, Brenchley said.
After passing south of the Big Island, a ridge moving the storm toward the west-northwest is expected to weaken, slowing Kilo’s forward speed, likely resulting in a turn toward the north-northeast Sunday. That turn will steer the storm toward Kauai, Niihau and the western half of Oahu. The current forecast cone has the storm approaching those islands on Wednesday as a hurricane.
“It may end up more like Iwa from ‘82, which crossed near the north side of Kauai in a northeasterly direction. That, track-wise, looks similar to Kilo,” Brenchley said when prompted about whether the storm was taking the track Hurricane Iniki did in 1992 when it slammed Kauai’s southern coast as a Category 4 storm. He noted that the storm is taking a path more southerly than Iniki did as it tracked near the island chain.
The chance of the storm making a sharp turn north before forecast and impacting Kona is slim. For such an event to occur, Brenchley said, the storm would have to strengthen a lot faster than forecast and a ridge currently keeping the storm from tracking north would have to “suddenly” and “very rapidly” weaken. “The chances are extremely low that it would do that,” he summarized.
The center said the U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron was en route to conduct an initial pass through of the storm Friday evening. Thereafter, flights will be conducted every 12 hours.
Gov. David Ige on Thursday signed an emergency proclamation in anticipation of the arrival of Tropical Storm Kilo. The proclamation activates the Major Disaster Fund set aside by the Legislature for disaster relief for the entire state. It also allows easier access to emergency resources at the state and federal levels, along with the ability to suspend certain laws as needed for emergency purposes.
In addition to Kilo, forecasters Friday were monitoring Tropical Storm Loke, the fifth named storm of the Central Pacific hurricane season. The storm, located more than 1,400 miles west-southwest of Kailua-Kona, featured maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Forecasters expect the storm to continue strengthening before starting to weaken during the middle of next week.
Elsewhere in the Central Pacific basin, no tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday afternoon, forecasters said.
In the Eastern Pacific, forecasters were keeping tabs two areas of disturbed weather off the Mexico coast. Some development is possible next week.
Get more hurricane-related content, including preparation tips, evacuation info and daily tropical weather updates, on our hurricane season page, sponsored by Clark Realty, at www.westhawaiitoday.com/hurricane-season-2015.
