The MLB agent who holds the keys to the offseason

Scott Boras’ sports agency is based in an office complex in Newport Beach, California, but in the afternoons during the baseball season, the headquarters shifts location. Sometimes he holds court in a suite at Angel Stadium. When the Los Angeles Dodgers are in town, he stands behind the backstop, where current and future clients, and suitors of those players, can visit.

The rules of Major League Baseball forbid Boras, or any agent, from stepping onto the field. So, people come to him.

In the hours before Game 1 of the World Series, Juan Soto made the short pilgrimage into the seats to chat with his agent. Earlier, Brian Cashman, the New York Yankees’ general manager, had made a similar trip. Before Game 1 of the National League Championship Series, New York Mets owner Steve Cohen left the diamond to talk with Boras.

Those scenes are symbols of this winter’s most prominent free-agent contest, the battle between the two New York clubs for the services of Soto, “the Mona Lisa of the museum,” as Boras described him. But after the last offseason, which was viewed as unsuccessful by Boras’ rivals, a question lingers: Can Boras still make the industry come to him?

For the past four decades, no agent has been more effective at extracting money from owners than Boras, even as more teams emphasize austerity. His clients netted more than $1 billion in free agency after the 2019 season. He figures to surpass that number this winter; he represents eight of the top 16 free agents.

Soto will command the most money, with a present-day value expected to exceed Shohei Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700 million deal. Among Boras’ other clients are former Cy Young Award winners (Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell), a former Home Run Derby champion (Pete Alonso) and an important part of two championship teams (Alex Bregman).

“It’s the talent that runs the sport,” Boras said at the general managers’ meetings in San Antonio this month.

He will take that group to market facing challenges similar to ones he faced last winter, according to MLB executives and rival agents who requested anonymity to speak freely. Some teams continue to grapple with the uncertainty of television deals. Some owners are wary of spending when the expanded postseason offers easier access to a championship. And some executives are increasingly skeptical about the value of long-term contracts for pitchers.

It is not uncommon for Boras, 72, to enter the winter as the representative for the best players available. And Boras clients tend to pursue their perceived value on the open market.

In the winter after 2019, Boras took three former first-round picks to free agency: pitcher Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324 million with the Yankees), third baseman Anthony Rendon (seven years, $245 million with the Los Angeles Angels) and pitcher Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245 million with the Washington Nationals). The Strasburg contract set a record for the largest sum ever awarded a pitcher — a deal smashed by Cole days later. The $814 million threesome formed the core of Boras’ $1 billion winter.

Last offseason, Boras had less success. He was pursuing new contracts for four major clients: a former NL MVP, Cody Bellinger; third baseman Matt Chapman; pitcher Jordan Montgomery; and Snell. The terrain had changed since 2019. The pandemic tempered some of the owners’ enthusiasm for spending. The collapse of the regional sports network model handcuffed some teams. Boras was trying to sell clients to owners ready with excuses.

“There’s definitely a recognition in the industry that these type of deals don’t always work,” one executive said about long-term contracts for aging players.

It is not hard to find examples. Plagued by injuries, Strasburg made only eight appearances during his new Nationals contract. He retired in April. Rendon rarely plays for the Angels. Even Cole, a success in pinstripes, hurt his elbow this year, triggering worries about his long-term health.

When spring training opened in February, Boras had not yet found deals for his four prominent clients. Bellinger became the first to sign when he returned to the Chicago Cubs on Feb. 27 with a three-year, $80 million contract. The others took similar so-called pillow contracts, short-term deals designed as springboards to a brighter future. Chapman signed a three-year, $54 million deal with the San Francisco Giants; Snell became his teammate on a two-year, $62 million contract; Montgomery received a two-year, $47.5 million deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The perception among team officials and other agents was that Boras had overplayed his hand. Several executives suggested he underestimated the severity of the television collapse, which affected 14 teams as Diamond Sports Group, the Bally Sports operator, went through bankruptcy restructuring. The situation has not been totally rectified a year later, but Boras remained dismissive about its effect on spending.

“I think that’s last year’s news,” he said at the general managers’ meetings.

Boras has defended the four players’ contracts by citing the elevated average annual value of each deal and the ease with which each player could return to the market. But only Snell will test free agency this winter. Montgomery left Boras after a wretched season that ended with Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick calling the acquisition a “horrible decision.” Bellinger stayed with the Cubs. Unlike Montgomery, he remained loyal to his representative. “What stands out to me is how much he cares,” Bellinger said. “He really does care.”

The Giants’ new president of baseball operations, Buster Posey, who is also a member of the team’s ownership group, negotiated directly with Chapman to complete a six-year, $151 million extension in September. The contract shows owners are still willing to pay a premium for elite players.

Boras had less success with his opening move of the 2024 offseason. Three days after the World Series concluded, Cole informed the Yankees he was opting out of the final four years and $144 million of his contract. The Yankees could void the opt-out by triggering an additional fifth season at $36 million. A 48-hour standoff ensued. Cashman relayed the team’s disinterest in adding another year. The team banked on Cole’s zeal to remain with the Yankees and the market’s concern about a 34-year-old pitcher with an elbow injury. In the end, the two sides agreed that Cole could remain on his original contract and take a mulligan on the opt-out. “The Yankees didn’t blink,” a rival agent said.

Cashman framed the situation as mutually beneficial. “We wanted our player and our ace back, and he certainly didn’t want to go,” Cashman said.

Even so, the opt-out bluff prompted some chuckling among attendees in San Antonio. One executive described Boras as “out of touch” and unwilling to adjust his tactics to a new market. Of course, Boras heard similar criticism after the 2018 season, when only two of his clients signed multiyear deals. He responded with the bonanza built around Cole, Rendon and Strasburg, which is why another executive described Boras’ lack of success last winter as “a one-off shooting star.”

On a recent Wednesday, as a crowd of reporters gathered outside conference rooms at the J.W. Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Resort and Spa, Boras stood on a riser, riffing on his players to groans and guffaws.

On Snell, returning after last year’s dry winter: “There’s no doubt that the Snelling salts have created a lot of whiffs. The market has definitely awakened to Blake Snell.”

On Bregman, a veteran of seven postseason teams: “He’s provided the Astros with that infusion of championship blood. I’d say everything about him is AB positive.”

On Alonso, nicknamed after a certain ursine mammal: “We hear a lot about the bear market for power-hitting first basemen. For Pete’s sake, it’s the polar opposite.”

And then, of course, there is Soto.

“You can really see that owners, general managers, they’re called upon to be championship magicians,” he said. “It’s what they’re asked to do. It’s hard to do, to put together that magic of a championship run. Behind every great magician, obviously, is the magic Juan.”

Boras does not need flights of rhetorical fancy to sell Soto, 26. He is one of the game’s most feared and revered hitters.

Soto was projected by The Athletic’s Tim Britton to secure a 13-year, $611 million contract. Given Soto’s importance to the Yankees and Cohen’s endless trunks of money, that estimate may prove low. And the market may not be limited to New York. The Dodgers intend to move Mookie Betts back to the infield, which creates a convenient opening in the corner outfield. Even if the Dodgers only linger around the proceedings, their presence could drive up Soto’s price.

It will be interesting to see how quickly Boras will act. “He’s got to get Soto off the board,” a rival agent said. “You can’t have Corbin Burnes and all these other guys waiting around in January.”

Others indicated Soto’s price would tie up only a handful of teams.

But Boras was guarded when asked if Soto needed to sign before other clients. “That is a great question,” he said. “Unfortunately, it’s not one that I can answer. It’s one that they can.”

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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