Trump tightens grip on the Republican nomination
As expected, Donald Trump earned an easy victory in the Iowa Republican caucus on Monday, breaking records in the process. The result moves him closer to recapturing the GOP presidential nomination, although he still has significant work ahead of him.
Trump took 51% of the vote, beating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 30 points and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by 32 points. His performance easily broke the previous record for margin of victory in Iowa during a contested caucus, set in 1988 when Bob Dole beat runner-up Pat Robertson by 13 points.
The bad news for Gov. DeSantis and Ms. Haley is that Trump more than doubled his support in Iowa from 2016, when his 24.3% showing was good for second behind Ted Cruz. “He continued to dominate among less well-educated and working-class voters,” the Financial Times reported. “But he also won in counties that were younger and richer, barely losing to Haley in Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa.”
The campaign now moves to New Hampshire and then South Carolina, Ms. Haley’s home state.
Both Ms. Haley and Gov. DeSantis will no doubt point out that nearly half of Iowa’s GOP caucus participants preferred somebody other than the former president. True enough, but if they continue to split the anti-Trump vote, neither has a viable road to victory.
Time is indeed running out on both Gov. DeSantis and Ms. Haley. But it’s worth remembering that a non-incumbent winner of the Iowa GOP caucus hasn’t won the party’s presidential nomination since 2000. And don’t forget that Joe Biden was given up for dead after early primary defeats in 2020. Rapid change is a fixture of electoral politics.
Trump was uncharacteristically gracious in victory. He complimented his two main challengers as “great competition” and sounded a positive note.
But speed bumps remain. As Iowa proves, Trump has a rabidly loyal base that will support him regardless of prosecutions and controversies. To win in November, however, he’ll need to attract moderate and independent swing-state voters. Turnout Monday was down significantly from eight years ago. A result of Trump fatigue? Antipathy over a potential Trump-Biden rematch? Time will tell.
