Israel sees signs of breakthrough in talks over Gaza ceasefire

Israeli officials say a ceasefire in Gaza is a more realistic prospect than at any time in the past year, suggesting a long-awaited deal to free hostages and boost aid to the beleaguered territory could be close.

A working group from Israel is in the Qatari capital of Doha this week to re-establish relations with mediators in the event of a breakthrough in negotiations with Hamas, said the officials, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive information.

Their optimism has been reflected in recent comments by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s senior cabinet members. Defense Minister Israel Katz, speaking on Monday, said a truce is “closer than ever,” while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told hostage families he’s more upbeat than a month ago.

“There’s a chance to reach a deal and, from what I know, it will involve all 100 hostages,” Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli said on Army Radio on Tuesday. “First the humanitarian cases and then the rest.”

There’s been no official comment from Hamas.

An agreement to at least pause the Israel-Hamas war would end more than a year of frustration, during which talk of an imminent deal has bubbled up intermittently before swiftly collapsing. Negotiations are being mediated by Qatar and Egypt, with oversight from the U.S., and recent visits to the region from Washington officials may have helped advance the process.

Intensive Qatari and Egyptian efforts are underway “with all parties” to reach a truce in Gaza, Cairo-based broadcaster Extranews, which typically represents government thinking, said on X on Tuesday.

The BBC cited an unidentified Palestinian official involved in the talks saying that they are in the final stages.

Details are mostly under wraps, but two Israeli officials said the ceasefire would come in stages, starting during the administration of outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden and continuing after Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

Adam Boehler, appointed by Trump as a special envoy for hostage affairs in the upcoming administration, is in Israel meeting Netanyahu, among others. Trump has stated he wants the hostages freed before he starts his new term.

In the first phase of the deal under discussion, hostages defined as “humanitarian” — women, the ill and those older than 51 — would be freed in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. There would then be a ceasefire of six to seven weeks during which Israeli troops would withdraw from parts of Gaza, with talks beginning on a permanent truce.

Hundreds of aid trucks would enter the Palestinian territory daily during that period, bringing much-needed food, water and health supplies to a population the United Nations and aid groups say is gripped by humanitarian crisis.

The second phase, according to the officials, would bring back the remaining hostages — military-age men, mostly — in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. The third stage would see work begin on the reconstruction of Gaza and include the return of bodies of hostages. About half of the 100 still in captivity are thought to be dead.

In previous rounds of talks, a major obstacle has been the insistence by Hamas that, from the start, Israel agrees to withdraw all its troops from Gaza. Israel has refused, saying it will not stop its campaign until Hamas is destroyed and can no longer rule the territory.

While Hamas hasn’t publicly acknowledged a change in that stance, Israeli officials say the Iran-backed group has become more flexible.

A number of other issues still need to be negotiated, including what constitutes a humanitarian case for a hostage. Israel wants all the women released first, including soldiers.

A second sticking point is what security checks would be imposed on Gazans returning to the north of the strip. A third is from where Israeli troops must withdraw, and a fourth is that Israel wants to reserve the right to return to fighting in Gaza.

Any of those could stop a deal from reaching fruition.

The Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023 when thousands of Hamas militants raided southern Israel from Gaza, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250. Israel responded with a fearsome assault by air, sea and land, a war that has turned much of the coastal strip into rubble, displaced some 2 million people and, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, killed 45,000.

Hamas is considered a terrorist group by the U.S. and many other governments. Israel says it’s killed nearly 20,000 militants but doesn’t say how many civilians.

Just over a year ago, more than 100 hostages were exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and a boost in humanitarian aid. But a deal to maintain that peace quickly fell apart.

During the course of the war, other Iran-allied militias have joined in the attacks on Israel in solidarity with Hamas, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Israel has fought back, killing the leadership of Hezbollah and severely degrading the group’s military capabilities. A ceasefire with Hezbollah was agreed to in late November, which the U.S. said would give impetus to the stalled talks over Gaza.

Iran has twice exchanged direct fire with Israel but is on the back foot, particularly after the ouster of key ally, Syria’s ex-President Bashar al-Assad. Israel launched a major offensive on Syria immediately after his toppling, seeking to destroy weapons sites before they fell into the hands of hostile Islamist groups.

All this has left Hamas isolated and weak. That, according to the Israelis, is why the group appears to have softened its demands and why a deal seems more achievable.