Five takeaways from College Football Playoff rankings: How SMU, Texas could square off
DALLAS — Here are five takeaways from the fifth installment of the College Football Playoff rankings, which were unveiled Tuesday night on ESPN. You can find a full breakdown of the rankings here.
Texas-Georgia, Round 3?
The No. 2 Longhorns (11-1, 7-1 SEC) moved up one spot in the overall CFP rankings (thanks to Ohio State’s loss to Michigan) but remained idle as the bracket’s second-seeded team.
Their quarterfinal opponent if the playoff started today? No. 5 Georgia (10-2, 6-2), which is currently the No. 7 seed in the bracket, the only team that’s beaten the Longhorns this season and their opponent in Saturday’s SEC championship game.
This, of course, can change. If Texas beats Georgia, the Bulldogs could drop a spot or two and find themselves on a different side of the bracket. If Georgia beats Texas, it clinches a first-round bye and the Longhorns fall into at-large territory.
SMU can now envision bye
The Mustangs have theoretically been in position to vie for a first-round CFP vie for some time now. It’s just a tad easier to visualize now.
The No. 8 Mustangs (11-1, 8-0 ACC) are the highest-ranked ACC team in the CFP rankings for the first time this season after it played second fiddle to No. 12 Miami (10-2, 6-2) in each of the first four installments. SMU would be the No. 3 seed and clinch a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions if the postseason started today.
It’s all temporary and will be finalized this weekend. The Mustangs will play No. 17 Clemson (9-3, 7-1) in the ACC championship game on Saturday. The winner will go dancing. The loser’s fate will be left up to the committee. SMU is in a strong position to clinch an at-large bid even if it doesn’t win a conference championship; the Tigers would all but certainly be on the outside looking in without one.
“The championship teams, we will evaluate that data points to determine if there needs to be any movement based on how the performance of the game goes,” CFP chair Warde Manuel said Tuesday night on ESPN.
SEC and ‘Bama are inevitable
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said before Saturday’s game between Texas and Texas A&M that his conference “should have three teams fully under consideration.”
How about four? The SEC, if Tuesday’s rankings were final, would send four teams (No. 2 Texas, No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Tennessee and No. 11 Alabama) to the playoffs. That could remain the status quo, too, by the time Sunday’s real-deal rankings drop.
“That is set in terms of how we see them going into championship week,” Manuel said. “There’s nothing that’s going to change … for us to evaluate them any differently than we have now. Those teams that are not playing cannot be adjusted in terms of where they are compared to other teams that are not playing.”
By that logic: No. 11 Alabama (9-3, 5-3 ACC) isn’t going to fall out of playoff position on its own merit. It also means that No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 14 South Carolina are all but certainly eliminated from postseason contention.
Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Crimson Tide is a lock either. If SMU beats Clemson and keeps the No. 17 Tigers at bay, Alabama might have safe passage into the postseason. But, if Clemson beats SMU, a scenario exists where two ACC teams clinch berths and Alabama is left out. Clemson would leapfrog Alabama (and, potentially, clinch a top-four seed and first-round bye) if it beats SMU in the ACC championship game. The Mustangs would have to tumble from No. 8 to No. 12 (or below) in the CFP rankings for the Crimson Tide to clinch a postseason berth over them.
Jeanty and Boise sit pretty
Two of the four teams currently in position to clinch a first-round bye are from the state of Texas. Another is fueled by one of its best exports.
No. 10 Boise State (11-1, 7-0 MWC) would receive a first-round bye and be seeded fourth in the bracket if the postseason were to begin today because of its status as the fourth highest-ranked conference champion. Jeanty, a Frisco Lone star graduate, has played a massive role.
The Heisman Trophy candidate leads the nation in rushing yards (2,228), rushing touchdowns (28) and ranks second in yards per carry (7.33). As the bracket currently stands, his Broncos would play the winner of No. 5 Penn State and No. 12 Arizona State in the quarterfinals.
Big 12 misery report
Well, it’s still represented. Barely.
The winner between Saturday’s conference championship game between No. 15 Arizona State (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) and No. 16 Iowa State (10-2, 7-2) can safely clinch a playoff berth as the fifth highest-ranked conference champion. The American Athletic Conference (whose highest-ranked team is No. 24 Army) is just too far back to contend for a spot.
The Big 12 champion — barring a significant jump into the top 12 in Sunday’s final rankings — will almost certainly knock an at-large candidate out of the playoffs. The playoff requires the five highest-ranked conference champions to clinch a berth, so in this instance, either Arizona State or Iowa State would squeeze into the bracket over No. 12 Miami.
Sorry, Hurricanes. Make way for the Sun Devils or Cyclones.
