Global carbon dioxide emissions, including those from burning fossil fuels, are set to hit a record high this year, pulling the world further off course from averting more destructive climate extremes, scientists said on Wednesday.
The Global Carbon Budget report, published during the U.N.’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, said global CO2 emissions are set to total 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tons last year.
The bulk of these emissions are from burning coal, oil and gas. Those emissions would total 37.4 billion tons in 2024, up by 0.8% in 2023, the report said.
The rest are from land use, a category that includes deforestation and forest fires. The report by more than 80 institutions was led by the University of Exeter in Britain.
“We don’t see a sign of fossil fuel emissions peaking in 2024,” said lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter.
Without immediate and steep emissions cuts worldwide, “we will just go straight into the 1.5C target, we’ll just pass it and continue,” he said.
Countries agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement to try to stop global temperatures rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) to avoid climate change’s worst impacts.
This would require steep emissions cuts every year from now until 2030 and beyond.
Instead, fossil fuel emissions have climbed over the last decade. Land use emissions had declined in this period – until this year, when a severe drought in the Amazon caused forest fires, driving up annual land use emissions by 13.5% to 4.2 billion tons.
Some scientists have said such slow progress means the 1.5C aim can no longer realistically be met.
This year’s emissions data showed evidence of some countries rapidly expanding renewable energy and electric cars, the authors said.
Progress, however, was sharply uneven – with rich industrialised nations’ emissions decreasing, and emerging economies’ emissions still rising.
Tensions between nations erupted on Tuesday at COP29 over who should lead the world’s transition away from fossil fuels – which produce around 80% of global energy.
COP29 host Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev accused Western countries of hypocrisy for lecturing others while still being major consumers and producers of fossil fuels.
Emissions in the U.S., the world’s top oil and gas producer and consumer, are expected to decrease by 0.6% this year, while European Union emissions are set to fall by 3.8%.
Meanwhile, India’s emissions will rise by 4.6% this year, driven by soaring power demand fuelled by economic growth.
Emissions in China, today the world’s biggest emitter and second-largest oil consumer, are set to marginally increase by 0.2%. The authors said China’s emissions from oil use have likely peaked, as electric vehicles gain market share.
Emissions from international aviation and shipping are also expected to jump by 7.8% this year, as air travel continues to recover from a drop in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.