Predicting 49ers’ post-bye playoff push: The case for Super Bowl contention (and the case against)

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — You win some, you lose some. You win four, you lose four. Now nine games remain for the San Francisco 49ers to reach the playoffs as the reigning NFC champions.

They should make it. Or should they?

This flip-flopping season has seen the 49ers fail to win consecutive games as they enter this Week 9 bye.

So let’s workshop this and explain why they can make a Super Bowl encore, then debunk that path.

1. Division is wide open

— Pro: The 49ers are very much alive for their third straight NFC West title.

It’s too early to use the tiebreaker, but just know that the 49ers will face each of their division rivals once more, so they can sweep the Seahawks, then go on to split with the Cardinals and the Rams to help offset this season’s fourth-quarter collapses.

— Con: If this division keeps cannibalizing itself, another team may sneak through to finish first and host a wild-card game.

The Cardinals could be for real, as their first four wins already match their season total in both 2022 and ’23; their last three wins before Week 9 have come on late or walk-off field goals by Chad Ryland. The Seahawks’ next three games (and four of five) are divisional matchups so they could suddenly revive themselves. The Rams have Matthew Stafford, and they just beat Minnesota.

2. Enough stars healthy

— Pro: Quarterback Brock Purdy, left tackle Trent Williams, tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, defensive end Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Enough of the 49ers’ veteran core is alive and well to make another post-bye surge.

Complementing them is one of the 49ers’ most productive rookie classes in ages, led by guard Dom Puni, wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, cornerback Renardo Green and safety Malik Mustapha.

— Con: Injuries happen. Each of the aforementioned stars has been on the injury list this season. Can all of them make it through the next 13 games for their first Super Bowl win?

3. Reinforcements coming

— Pro: Christian McCaffrey’s absence has been glaring, more in the offense’s overall potency than just a rushing attack that has been aptly led by Jordan Mason. McCaffrey is testing his Achilles tendinitis this week to potentially return to practice (and launch an NFL Comeback Player of the Year bid). Wide receiver Jauan Jennings (hip) and kicker Jake Moody (ankle) should return post-bye, and the 49ers eventually could spring linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achilles), defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos (knee) and safety Talanoa Hufanga (wrist) off injury lists.

— Con: The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday. No need to tell the Chiefs. The 49ers’ Super Bowl rivals already swooped in on positions of need (for both teams) by adding wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and defensive end Joshua Uche. Perhaps it’s too late to score defensive-front help or an experienced receiver. And there’s no guarantee McCaffrey will be able to push himself to the max like last season or that other help will come off injured reserve.

4. Closing lessons

— Pro: The 49ers may have learned their lesson from blown leads. Tormented by their collapses to the Rams and the Cardinals, the 49ers saw double-digit leads shrink against the Seahawks and the Cowboys, but even though those became one-score games, the 49ers prevailed.

“We put ourselves in that situation so we had to get ourselves out,” Warner said Sunday. “It was about going out there and finishing the game and we did that.”

Added Deommodore Lenoir: “That was a big testimony to us finishing what we need to do this whole season.”

— Con: So the 49ers need to take 20- and 17-point leads into the fourth quarter to win? That’s been the case in their last two victories. Whether it’s a systemic issue or a downright jinx, coach Kyle Shanahan’s teams have too deep a history of blowing leads to think they won’t do so again, especially when it matters (see: 2019, ’21 and ’23 playoff endings).

5. Post-bye bump

— Pro: For the third straight season, the 49ers’ bye comes in Week 9. Their 2022 team went 9-0 to close the regular season; last year’s team snapped a three-game skid out of the bye and pulled off a 7-2 run toward the playoffs as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

— Con: Bygones.

“My message has been talking about the past,” Bosa said earlier this season. “But it’s a new team, a lot of new guys, so it’s time to focus on the now.”

Indeed, a lot of rookies didn’t experience those past playoff pushes, and by playing so much in this season’s first half, they will hit the “rookie wall” at some point.

The next block of four games will be the 49ers’ most demanding, at least from a travel perspective: Nov. 10 at Tampa Bay Bucs (4-4), Nov. 17 vs. Seahawks (4-4), Nov. 24 at Green Bay Packers (6-2), Dec. 1 at the Buffalo Bills (6-2). The 49ers are 1-2 on the road this season. The weather will turn for the worst. And so might the 49ers’ season.