Nearly a year after Hamas’ unprecedented assault shattered their spirits, Israelis are in a triumphant mood over the pummeling their military has given Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the killing of its elusive leader.
The front pages of Israeli newspapers on Sunday declared a “new Middle East.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proclaimed the death of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had knocked out “the main engine of Iran’s axis of evil” — a network of anti-Israel militias stretching from Hamas in Gaza to Yemen’s Houthis and allies in Syria and Iraq.
In short, Israelis who’ve spent the past 12 months fearing they’re surrounded by enemies and in a state of profound insecurity are being told the tide has turned. Even the possibility of direct retaliation from the Islamic Republic is doing little to dim the jubilation.
“Israel changed the rules of the game,” said Kobi Michael, a former top official and senior researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, a hawkish think tank. “Once Hezbollah is paralyzed, the entire axis is paralyzed. Iran is vulnerable.”
It all stands in stark contrast to the situation in Lebanon, where almost a week of Israeli air strikes have devastated the south, left hundreds of people dead and sent tens of thousands fleeing for sanctuary. Hezbollah has dominated Lebanese politics for two decades, and even among its local opponents there are deep worries over what its weakening may unleash.
In the Palestinian enclave of Gaza, where a war has raged since Hamas militants killed 1,200 people and abducted 250 others on Oct. 7, Israel is sounding increasingly bullish too. Officials say the Islamist group has been dismantled as a military threat, 23 of its 24 battalions destroyed and most of its commanders killed.
It’s all come at a terrible price for Palestinians, with at least 41,000 dead, according to Hamas, and much of the territory in rubble. Cease-fire talks have stalled and about 100 Israeli hostages are still being held.
Hezbollah began shelling Israel the day after Hamas’ attack, forcing thousands of Israelis to abandon their homes and turning parts of the country’s north into ghost towns. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are considered terrorist groups by the U.S.
Israel finally turned its full focus north in mid-September, targeting Hezbollah’s leadership in the deadliest and most sustained violence between the two sides since a 34-day war in 2006.
Iran has so far shown little rush to retaliate for Nasrallah’s death. President Masoud Pezeshkian stopped short of pledging a direct and immediate attack on Israel, and in his international debut at the United Nations last week tempered his remarks.
‘Time for deal’
More liberal Israelis, suspicious of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, have welcomed the strikes but say the country needs to seize the moment and push for a negotiated peace.
“It’s time for a deal,” editorialized the Haaretz newspaper, urging diplomatic moves that would return the hostages and implement U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which would push Hezbollah some 30 km (18 miles) north of the border to the Litani River.
Other Israeli voices say only more force will bring results. A ground incursion may be on the cards.
“Israel would do well not to bask overmuch in its accomplishments,” wrote Yoav Limor in Israel Hayom newspaper. The military should be open to a ground operation “to distance the threats from the border and demonstrate its superiority on land.”
Such an incursion is just one of the fears stalking Lebanon, already battered by one of the world’s worst financial crises since the mid-19th century and where the national government has little remit.
Southerners flee
At least 110,000 people have fled since Israel began its air raids on Lebanon over a week ago, according to Prime Minister Najib Mikati. He said that the number could reach a million within days, describing it as the “largest displacement in Lebanon’s history.”
“It’s a disaster,” said Laila Al Amine, director for Lebanon at humanitarian group Mercy Corps. “One of the biggest challenges is that the government doesn’t have the means to equip the shelters.”
Reactions to Nasrallah’s death have also jangled nerves. When Hezbollah confirmed his death Saturday, there were bursts of gunfire and cries and screams from buildings in southern Beirut, the group’s stronghold.
Many Lebanese fear a new wave of street clashes between Hezbollah supporters and other players from the country’s fractured political arena, as happened in 2008 and 2021.
Nasrallah’s adversaries are keeping their heads down. One group asked its followers to refrain from posting on social media or speak publicly about the assassination.
Lebanon’s army on Sunday urged citizens “not to be drawn into actions that may affect civil peace at this dangerous and delicate stage in our country’s history.”
Southern residents are now scattered around the country, sheltering in schools and other public buildings.