Good news for deal-seekers this fall: Travel demand has softened

Revenge travel after the darkest days of the pandemic contributed to travel roaring back around the world, with airlines, hotels and cruises reporting double-digit growth and travelers using their savings, taking on debt or even selling their homes to splurge on bucket list adventures or multiple trips.

Now, at least for some travelers, that furious vacation spending is slowing down. While high-income travelers are still booking luxury experiences and jet-setting abroad, other consumers have been cutting back on travel spending to meet the high cost of living.

Data from Tourism Economics (on behalf of the U.S. Travel Association, a travel group) shows that the meteoric rise in post-pandemic travel spending that began in 2021 has reached a plateau. In earnings calls this month, top hotel chains such as Hilton and Hyatt reported less demand by leisure travelers for lower-priced brands, while online travel agencies, such as Expedia Group and Booking Holdings, and short-term rental companies such as Airbnb also noted slowdowns.

For those still seeking a vacation or two, that softening demand means bargains — in the form of lower airfare and hotel perks.

“The revenge travel effect is finally receding, and so are prices,” said Steve Hafner, CEO of the Kayak search engine, adding that the fall season will be an ideal time for travelers to “snag up a deal.”

Lodging costs stay steady, but perks abound

The hotel industry in the United States has reported a mostly flat performance this year, according to CoStar Group, a real estate analytics company.

“One thing we see across both sectors — both hotels and short-term rentals — is those listings that are the lowest price, attractive to lower-tier consumers, we’re seeing weakness,” said Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA, a short-term rental data and analytics company.

More incentives to book, such as room upgrades, are being offered to travelers, particularly loyalty-group members.

“There are more hotels than ever before offering perks with stays,” said Melanie Fish, the head of global public relations for Expedia Group Brands. “They may not be lowering their prices, but they will offer you a bottle of Champagne or free breakfast or a spa discount to stay.”

While looking through last-minute Labor Day options on Hotels.com, one of Expedia’s brands, Fish noticed properties offering rooms with 20% to 30% discounts.

A quick search confirms this: One room at the Moon Palace Cancún resort in Mexico was listed for nearly half of its normal price on Hotels.com for a stay over Labor Day weekend.

It’s not just Expedia brands. On Agoda.com, an online travel agency owned by Booking Holdings, a room at the JW Marriott Orlando Bonnet Creek Resort &Spa in Orlando, Florida, was available for nearly 25% off for Labor Day weekend dates. And on Booking.com, one could find a weekend at the Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas in October for nearly 40% off, as a limited time deal.

Booking last minute, one trend that arose during the pandemic, persists.

According to research conducted by AirDNA, last-minute reservations for short-term rentals — or bookings typically made the same week of the stay — have almost doubled since 2019.

Air travel: Lower prices and more seats

Although demand for air travel has continued to surge in 2024, with international and domestic traffic matching 2019 levels, according to the International Air Transport Association, bookings made in June and July for the months ahead slowed down, especially for domestic travel.

“A likely explanation is a return to prepandemic levels of growth,” the trade group wrote in a recent report.

Looking toward the fall, ticket prices are lower than last year and cabin capacity remains high.

In the United States, carriers have been flying more passenger seats this year compared with last year, according to global travel data provider OAG.

“Now, we’re seeing the scale tipped in the other direction, with more flights scheduled than demand,” said Katy Nastro, a travel expert and spokesperson at Going, a travel company that monitors airfare deals.

Airfare for international flights leaving from the United States this fall is down about 3% compared with last year, according to Airlines Reporting Corp., which processes the sale of tickets between airlines and travel agencies.

Domestic airfare will remain under 2023 levels for the rest of the year, according to the booking platform Hopper. The average price for a round-trip ticket in September is $240, 8% below the average in September 2023.

“We expect airfare to remain low through this fall before rising into the holiday season,” said Hayley Berg, the lead economist at Hopper.

Among the fall deals are round-trip flights in early October, operated by Alaska Airlines between Los Angeles to Honolulu for less than $300. An international round-trip airfare from New York to Lisbon, Portugal, with Tap Air Portugal costs about $500. Southwest Airlines is running a fall sale, with one-way domestic flights for as low as $39, and American Airlines is advertising discounted fares to South America, including a flight from Chicago to Bogota, Colombia, for a little more than $300.

Get more for your money by booking a cruise?

While travel demand is decreasing for some sectors, it’s not going away.

“People aren’t going to stop traveling,” said Fish. “They may book closer to when they’re going to travel. They may take a less ambitious trip. They may star down their hotel stays.”

One sector of the travel industry — cruises — has reported record demand this year, in part by drawing in passengers seeking all-inclusive packages more affordable than land-based vacations.

By the end of 2024, 34.7 million passengers are expected to sail on a cruise, 5 million more than the 29.7 million passengers who sailed in 2019, according to Cruise Lines International Association, the industry’s trade group. Cruise capacity is forecast to increase by 10% from 2024 to 2038.

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