In 2016, from the start of May until late August, a span of 43 outings, Baltimore Orioles closer Zack Britton held the opposition without an earned run, eventually finishing the season with a 0.54 earned run average and an MLB-leading 47 saves in 47 chances.
The day after his streak ended, his agent, Scott Boras, floated the idea that he had a legitimate shot at the American League Cy Young Award. It had never crossed Britton’s mind.
Britton knew about Eric Gagné’s record of 84 consecutive save conversions for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he figured Gagné, who won a Cy Young Award in 2003, would be the last reliever to win one. No reliever has won it since.
“You have to be so much better than any starter,” Britton said. “You have to have something — or a couple things — that wows voters.”
Britton and Boras thought a 47-for-47 record, paired with a microscopic ERA, might do the trick, or at least give him “more clout.”
“It didn’t,” Britton said, laughing.
He finished fourth, behind Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber.
Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, no qualified reliever has ever posted a lower ERA than Britton in 2016. The second-lowest ERA belongs to Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, who has a 0.58 ERA this season.
Outside of Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the Cy Young field is not exactly teeming with worthy candidates this year. Could Clase break a 21-year reliever drought and become the 10th reliever to win the hardware?
Those who have flirted with glory have their doubts.
“The game has valued relieving,” Britton said, “but not enough to where the voters are going to give a reliever the Cy Young.”
Clase has held the opposition to a .160/.195/.202 slash line this season. He induces weak contact, persuades hitters to chase pitches and limits base runners. His ERA is less than half of the second-best mark in the league, the 1.28 ERA held by Texas Rangers closer Kirby Yates. On Wednesday, he tied Cody Allen’s franchise record with his 149th save.
“He’s the best in the world,” Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee said of Clase.
And yet history tells us Clase stands a slim chance at landing the Cy Young Award.
It has been 16 years since a reliever finished in the top three in the Cy Young voting in either league. No reliever has finished in the top five since Kenley Jansen in 2017.
Last season, Orioles closer Félix Bautista — with a 1.48 ERA, 110 strikeouts and only 30 hits allowed in 61 innings — finished 11th, the best standing of any reliever. The year before, New York Mets closer Edwin Díaz — with a 1.31 ERA, 118 strikeouts and 34 hits allowed in 62 innings — finished ninth, the best standing of any reliever.
Liam Hendriks finished eighth in 2021. Devin Williams finished seventh in 2020. Yates finished ninth in 2019, when he registered a 1.19 ERA with 101 strikeouts and a league-leading 41 saves. In 2018, Blake Treinen recorded a 0.78 ERA across 80 1/3 innings, with 38 saves, 100 strikeouts and 46 hits allowed. That earned him a tie for sixth.
A reliever’s path to first place is littered with potholes. Voters have demonstrated they prefer a strong 200 innings over a much stronger 70.
Blake Snell captured the NL Cy Young last year with only 180 innings. No NL reliever received a single top-five tally.
How can a reliever, as Britton said, wow a voter? Francisco Rodríguez finished third in the AL voting in 2008, a campaign fueled by his record-setting 62 saves. His ERA was 2.24 and his WHIP, walk rate and strikeout rate were not noteworthy. His numbers were much flashier in 2004 and 2006, and he finished fourth both years.
Craig Kimbrel, who over a four-year span (2011 to 2014) posted a 1.51 ERA with 436 strikeouts and 185 saves, never finished better than fourth.
Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman finished second in 1998 and in 2006, despite different degrees of dominance.
Mariano Rivera, MLB’s only unanimous Hall of Famer, finished third three times and second once. He led the league in saves in three seasons and had a sub-2.00 ERA on 11 occasions.
“I admire him,” Clase said. “I would love to be as successful as he was.”
Nine relievers have won the Cy Young Award, but their cases do not tell us much about a reliever’s chances in 2024. Mike Marshall was first, in 1974, on the back of 106 relief appearances covering 208 innings for the Dodgers. He posted a 2.42 ERA as he logged more innings than most starters do now. It was his third consecutive top-four finish.
Dennis Eckersley not only won the Cy Young Award in 1992, he also was the most valuable player that year, in his age-37 season. He produced far better numbers two years earlier, when he finished fifth.
The one example that might offer some insight is Gagné, who in 2003 recorded a 1.20 ERA and a league-leading 55 saves, with 137 strikeouts and 37 hits allowed in 82 1/3 innings. He received 28 of 32 first-place votes to beat Jason Schmidt and Mark Prior. It was the best relief season, by wins above replacement, of the last 40 years, and it far outranks any season since.
Of course, WAR might not be the best measurement of a reliever’s output or an accurate reflection of voter values. Writers were not gawking at Gagné’s advanced statistics in 2003. They were in awe of his saves streak, his strikeout rate and his ERA.
That is part of the challenge. Every voter has different preferences, and those criteria have evolved over time as an influx of data has consumed the sport. Eckersley probably would not win MVP today for his 1992 performance. He is not even sure he should have won then. Roger Clemens posted an ERA a half-run higher, but over 166 2/3 more innings.
A few years ago, Eckersley said that if any starter has “a great year, you can’t challenge that.” He emphasized how much more valuable an impressive 225 innings are than a near-flawless 70 innings.
“But,” Eckersley added, “I’m not giving any awards back.”
When Britton’s 2016 season ended and awards season approached, he dissected Gagné’s performance and realized how much his strikeout total boosted his stock.
“You probably have to have 100-plus strikeouts and an ERA significantly under 1.00,” Britton surmised.
Britton totaled only 74 strikeouts, but he could not have scripted a more perfect 2016 season. He was convinced his ERA and perfect saves mark would give him a chance. Instead, Porcello’s 22 wins appealed to voters, despite Verlander and Kluber having better ERAs, hit rates, strikeout rates and WAR figures.
“If I would’ve struck out 100 guys, with the ERA and the perfect save season,” Britton said, “maybe I finish in the top two or three. It’s hard.”
Britton is rooting for Clase to finish better than fourth, to make a statement for relievers worthy of serious consideration.
Skubal is the only qualified AL starter with an ERA below 3.00. Cole Ragans, Logan Gilbert, Seth Lugo, Tanner Houck, Corbin Burnes and others all have similar cases.
Could that help Clase’s candidacy? Can he finish second? If Skubal falters in the final month, could Clase win?
“From somebody who has been there, and understands relieving nowadays and the pressure of that,” Britton said, “it’s beyond impressive. It’s a special thing to watch.”