The news that Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from the French Open with a torn meniscus was one of those moments at Roland Garros where the gasps were audible.
It wasn’t a huge shock given Djokovic said he was unsure if he would play his quarterfinal after picking up the injury in a fourth-round win over Francisco Cerundolo. Still, to lose the world No. 1 and defending champion in this manner is huge.
But what are the implications of Djokovic’s withdrawal — for him, the event, and the sport in general?
What is Djokovic’s injury?
Djokovic withdrew from the French Open on Tuesday with a tear in the medial meniscus of his right knee. The meniscus is a semicircle of cartilage that sits on the inside half of the knee joint. It’s an extremely common injury among active adults, especially middle-aged men, and can bring varying amounts of pain.
In tennis players, especially over a long playing career, it’s more likely that any tear will be a slow degeneration that gets aggravated rather than a sudden, acute tear. Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are among the players who have had surgery on a torn meniscus in the last few years while in their mid-30s, even if the former was a freak injury while running the bath for his kids.
Recovery does not always involve surgery. Some people opt to avoid surgery — which can produce long-term complications like scarring and arthritis — and recover with physical therapy by building up the muscles around the knee. Whether that is an option can depend on the severity of the tear, and even if it’s not, the type of surgery also depends on the severity of the damage, whether acute or built up over time.
American No. 1 Taylor Fritz played at Wimbledon 23 days after an operation on a meniscus injury, but that was treated with a debridement, which trims the damaged section of the meniscus. If Djokovic’s injury is too severe for that, a full repair using stitches will be required, which extends the recovery time into months.
When will Djokovic return to tennis?
It’s too early to tell. Meniscus tears vary in severity. Needless to say, if Djokovic does appear at Wimbledon on July 1, he likely will not be as formidable a force as he has been for more than a decade when he has solidified his position as the world’s best grass-court player.
After Wimbledon, the tennis world’s focus turns to the Olympics at the end of July, where Djokovic will be desperate to win a first-ever gold medal at the Games.
What does this mean for the French Open draw?
Djokovic’s withdrawal blows the top half of the draw wide open. Casper Ruud, the runner-up for the past two years, has a bye to the semifinals, where he will play the winner of the quarterfinal between Alexander Zverev and Alex de Minaur. Zverev is looking to reach a fourth straight Roland Garros semifinal, while de Minaur had never gone beyond the second round here until this year.
What does this mean for tennis?
Whatever happens, there will be a new winner of this event for the first time since 2016, when Djokovic won his first title. Djokovic’s withdrawal also extends his difficult start to the year, where he is yet to reach a final. It’s the first time since 2018 that he has entered both of the first two Grand Slams of the year and won neither.
It also means a new ATP Tour world No. 1, with Jannik Sinner guaranteed to take that spot come Monday, June 10, achieving the milestone for the first time in his career.
Djokovic’s ranking position may tumble further. He has 1,200 points to defend at Wimbledon, 1,000 at Cincinnati, and 2,000 at the U.S. Open, making for a total of 4,200. Should he not be able to compete at those events, he will lose all his points from them (in addition to the 1,600 points coming off on Monday after his relatively early exit here), and his ranking would be down at around No. 8 in the world.
He would then be touch and go to even make November’s ATP Finals for the top-eight players of the year and in line for his worst year-end ranking since he finished just outside the top 10 in 2017 after an injury-ravaged season.
Djokovic pulling out is a nightmare for the French Tennis Federation (FFT).
He blamed the tournament and “very slippery” court for his injury on Monday and said his team would be speaking to the relevant event staff. The strength of feeling from the Djokovic camp was still there on Tuesday.
Djokovic’s exit also dramatically increases the chances of Zverev being crowned the champion on Sunday. Zverev, the No. 4 seed, is defending himself in a court hearing in Berlin over allegations that he abused a former girlfriend during an argument in 2020.
In October, the Berlin criminal court issued a penalty order, fining him €450,000 ($489,000; £384,000) in connection with the charges from Brenda Patea, a model and social media personality who is the mother of his daughter. Zverev denies the charges. In Germany, a prosecutor can seek a penalty order on cases it considers simple because there is compelling evidence that it should not require a trial.
What do the players think?
Taking a quarterfinal off the schedule doesn’t really do much good for anyone. For Ruud himself, it means a potentially rhythm-disrupting three days off, while for spectators with day tickets for Wednesday, it means they are a singles match short. For Zverev and de Minaur, whoever advances to face Ruud may perceive themselves to be at a disadvantage.