The Fed is eyeing the job market, but it’s difficult to read

The Federal Reserve spent much of 2022 and 2023 narrowly focusing on inflation as policymakers set interest rates: Prices were rising way too fast, so they became the central bank’s top priority. But now that inflation has cooled, officials are more clearly factoring the job market into their decisions again.

One potential challenge? It’s a very difficult moment to assess exactly what monthly labor market data is telling us.

Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said during a news conference Wednesday that the way the job market shaped up in coming months could help to guide whether and when the central bank lowered interest rates this year. A substantial weakening could prod policymakers to cut, he suggested. If job growth remained rapid and inflation remained stuck, on the other hand, the combination could keep the Fed from lowering interest rates anytime soon.

But it is tough to guess which of those scenarios may play out — and it is trickier than usual to determine how hot today’s job market is, especially in real time. Fed officials will get their latest reading Friday morning, when the Labor Department releases its April employment report.

Hiring has been rapid in recent months. That would typically make economists nervous that the economy was on the cusp of overheating: Businesses would risk competing for the same workers, pushing up wages in a way that could eventually drive up prices.

But this hiring boom is different. It has come as a wave of immigrants and workers coming in from the labor market’s sidelines have helped to notably increase the supply of applicants. That has allowed companies to hire without depleting the labor pool.

Yet the jump in available workers has also meant that a primary measure economists use in assessing the job market’s strength — payroll gains — is no longer providing a clear signal. That leaves economists turning to other indicators to evaluate the strength of the job market and to forecast its forward momentum. And those measures are delivering different messages.

Wage growth is still very strong by some gauges, but it seems to be cooling by others. Job openings have been coming down, the unemployment rate has ticked up recently (particularly for Black workers) and hiring expectations in business surveys have wobbled.

Friday’s report is expected to show that job gains remained rapid in April: Economists are forecasting a 240,000-person jump in payrolls, according to a Bloomberg survey.

That would continue the trend over the past year. The economy added 247,000 jobs per month on average from March 2023 to March 2024. To put that in context, the economy had added 167,000 jobs a month in the year through March 2019, the spring before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Fed’s policy committee voted this week to keep interest rates at 5.3%, where they have been set since July. Powell signaled that they are likely to stay at that relatively high level longer than previously expected, as officials await evidence that inflation is poised to cool further after months of stalled progress.

But while the path ahead for price increases will be the main driver of policy, Powell said that “as inflation has come down, now to below 3%,” employment also “now comes back into focus.”

For now, Fed officials have not been overly worried about rapid job gains. Powell noted Wednesday that the economy had been able to grow more strongly in 2023 partly because the labor supply had expanded so much, both because of immigration and because more people were participating in the job market.

“Remember what we saw last year: very strong growth, a really tight labor market and a historically fast decline in inflation,” Powell said. “I wouldn’t rule out that something like that can continue.”

On the other hand, Powell hinted that Fed officials were keeping an eye on wage growth. He suggested repeatedly that strong wage increases alone would not be enough to drive the Fed’s decisions.

But the Fed chair still signaled that recent wage gains were stronger than the Fed thought would be consistent with low and stable inflation over time. As companies pay more to attract workers, many economists think that they are likely to raise prices to cover climbing labor costs and protect profit margins.

Whether job gains and wage gains will remain so rapid is unclear.

Bill Kasko, the president of a white-collar employment placement agency in Texas, said that while he continued to see strong demand for workers, he also noticed employers becoming pickier as the outlook for interest rates and the looming presidential election stoked uncertainty.

They wanted to see more job candidates, and take longer to make decisions.

“There’s still demand, it’s just not moving as quickly,” Kasko said.

If employers start to pull back more concertedly, Powell made clear this week that a “meaningful” jump in joblessness could prod the central bank to lower rates.

The upshot? It seems as if officials would be more alarmed by a marked job market slowdown than by strong continued payroll gains, especially when it is hard to tell whether robust hiring numbers signal that the labor market is hot or simply that it is changing.

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