As research grows into how to stop gun violence, one city looks to science for help

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — “That’s where I got shot,” said Rashaad Woods, nodding toward a convenience store in Knoxville’s “gun zone.” There were bullet holes in a church’s walls. Nearby was a shuttered nightclub where some people were killed.

“There was a point in time I wasn’t comfortable standing here,” said Kodi Mills, 45. “But that time is passing.”

The men work for Turn Up Knox, a year-old outreach program that mentors kids and defuses situations that could escalate into violence. It’s a centerpiece of the Tennessee city’s attempt to follow a science-based playbook in fighting a surge in shootings.

In recent years, research reviews have begun to conclude there’s enough evidence to say which public health interventions prevent shootings, which do not, and which need more study. Knoxville is one of a growing number of cities teaming with researchers to develop an evidence-based plan to stop the bleeding.

Knoxville’s program was in reaction to a dramatic rise in shooting deaths and includes policing changes and other efforts. However, it does not count on new gun restrictions. That was important, since Tennessee has repeatedly moved to loosen gun laws.

“I wanted to have answers,” said Knoxville Mayor Indya Kincannon. “I wanted to be able to fix it.”

• • •

Nearly non-existent not long ago, gun violence prevention research has experienced a small boom in the wake of mounting shooting deaths, expanded funding and burgeoning advocacy.

Two decades ago, only about 20 U.S. researchers were focused on gun violence prevention. Last fall, more then 600 gathered in Washington, D.C., for what’s been described as the largest-ever national conference on the issue. An even bigger turnout is expected at a conference this fall.

Funding continues to be just a fraction of what is spent on other leading causes of death. Still, research has “just exploded” in the last few years, said Rebecca Cunningham, a gun violence researcher at the University of Michigan.

The work addresses the worst firearm violence in decades. Researchers estimate there were more than 48,000 firearm deaths last year, with gun-related homicide and suicide rates not seen since the early 1990s. Gunshots are now the leading cause of death of U.S. children and teenagers.

Though some big questions remain, there is a growing consensus about what programs and policies make a difference — and which don’t.

According to an assessment by the Rand Corp., measures that work include laws that permit charging adults who let children have unsupervised access to guns, well-enforced background checks and policies that ban guns from people subject to domestic violence restraining orders.

Measures that don’t: stand-your-ground and concealed carry laws, which studies consistently show increase gun homicides, and gun buyback programs, which have been shown to have little, if any, effect on crime.

• • •

Several cities have began looking to team up with gun violence prevention experts, including Muskegon, Michigan, which partnered with the University of Michigan.

Knoxville became the first city to sign up with Abt’s program at the Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction at the University of Maryland, which teamed with an outside researcher to analyze its violent crime.

The analysis contained a few surprises, said Knoxville Deputy Police Chief Tony Willis.

The average age of shooting suspects was 28, and for victims, 29, — an unexpectedly large proportion who were “much older than I expected,” he said.

Only 12% of homicides were solely gang-related, much lower than anticipated, Willis said. That suggests gun violence is often a personal dispute that could be mediated or averted before shots are fired.

The research also supported police data showing most gun violence happened in a few “hot spots,” mostly in East Knoxville, leading to a plan initially focusing police and community outreach to a nine-block area there.

The effort involves church leaders and a range of community organizations. There were also changes at the police department, including a new police chief, a detective unit focused only on homicides and shootings, and officers dedicated to patrolling in areas with many shootings.

A goal is to increase public trust in law enforcement, which had been low and sometimes abysmal. A particular low point occurred in 2021, when a police officer killed a student in a high school bathroom in East Knoxville.

“The community did, absolutely, raise concerns about policing. … A lot of conversations are still happening, frankly,” said LaKenya Middlebrook, the mayor’s point person on the effort.

Kincannon said she knew police “couldn’t do it alone.”

“We would have someone get killed in broad daylight, with a lot of witnesses, but no one wanted to talk,” she said. “That means we need more partnership in the community, to build trust.”

Even before the researchers’ analysis was completed, the city funded Turn Up Knox, a nonprofit led by 32-year-old community activist Denzel Grant.

It uses ex-offenders, violence survivors and other community members to identify those most likely to be shot or to become shooters in the future. They mentor teenagers, operate a lawn service that gives jobs to kids and are teaching families how to mediate conflicts and deal with the trauma that follows shootings.

It’s too early to say if the steps so far are making a difference in Knoxville.