SANTA CLARA, Calif. — What the 49ers will do in the NFL draft can sometimes be predictable — like taking star pass rusher Nick Bosa with the second-overall pick last year. Or the team can surprise, like in 2018, using the No. 9 choice on tackle Mike McGlinchey despite already having Trent Brown and more pressing needs on defense.
But what about 2020, when a sudden vault to Super Bowl contention has dramatically changed the franchise trajectory?
There’s no obvious plan of attack for coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch as they prepare for their fourth draft with San Francisco. The only prediction most observers feel confident making: The club will trade back from pick No. 31 for multiple selections later.
That’s what perennial contenders like the Patriots and Seahawks have done in the past, which appears prudent given the 49ers traded away their second-, third- and fourth-round picks for veterans Dee Ford and Emmanuel Sanders over the last year. Replacing Sanders is one of San Francisco’s top mandates in the draft since he joined the New Orleans Saints via free agency.
Perhaps that’s the plan with the No. 13 pick acquired from the Indianapolis Colts in the trade for star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. This class of receivers is widely considered the best in years — perhaps ever — and features three players that could be available for the 49ers, including CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. But the class is also deep enough that players with first-round talent could slip to Day 2, where Shanahan has found wideouts in the last two drafts.
That depth at receiver could allow San Francisco to go a different direction with its first pick.
Losing Buckner means there’s a void in the middle of the defensive line. Adding another offensive tackle, like the team did with McGlinchey two years ago, is justifiable with the end of Joe Staley’s career looming. Perhaps adding a cornerback is in the cards, with Richard Sherman entering the final year of his contract while neither Ahkello Witherspoon or Emmanuel Moseley have cemented a starting role on the opposite side (and are also entering contract years).
Let’s go through recent history to see if there are any clues to unearth from Shanahan and Lynch ahead of the draft beginning April 23.
Since Shanahan became an offensive coordinator in 2008, his teams have only used first-round picks on two positions on offense: tackle and quarterback.
The list goes: Duane Brown (tackle, Houston, 2008), Trent Williams (tackle, Washington, 2010), Robert Griffin III (quarterback, Washington, 2012), Johnny Manziel (quarterback, Cleveland, 2014) and McGlinchey.
Which means this season would mark the first time since Shanahan entered the league he’ll have invested a first-round pick in a receiver. In fact, before taking Dante Pettis in the second round 2018, Shanahan’s clubs had never invested a pick in a wideout before Round 3 (he did it again in 2019 with Deebo Samuel at the 36th overall pick, of course).
Is Shanahan adverse to taking receivers early? That’s unclear. It’s worth noting he inherited all-world talents in Houston and Atlanta with Andre Johnson and Julio Jones already in their primes. He had Josh Gordon on the Browns in 2014 coming off a 1,600-yard season (and it’s been reported he would have preferred Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo over Manziel in the draft, but his say in personnel decisions was limited).
Shanahan has proven to value to route running and separation skills more than overwhelming physicality which often vaults receivers into the first-round discussion. After all, of the 10 receivers Shanahan’s teams have drafted since 2010, only two, Leonard Hankerson and Jalen Hurd, have been taller than 6-feet tall.
Would that rule out springing for Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs? Certainly not.
The history simply suggests Shanahan has found desired traits in receivers later in the draft, which is notable given the depth of this class outside of the top three players. Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State), Jalen Reagor (TCU), Michael Pittman (USC) and Denzel Mims (Baylor) might be players to keep an eye on deeper in the draft, should the 49ers use their No. 13 pick elsewhere, which Shanahan’s clubs have done in the past.
It’s no secret the 49ers ferocious defensive line was key to their winning 2019 formula. Cap restraints and new contracts for Buckner and Arik Armstead made keeping both of their talented defensive tackles impossible. They must add another top-flight talent to replace Buckner if they plan to dominate the line of scrimmage in 2020.
Which means there’s no doubt the team is considering prospects like Derrick Brown (Auburn) and Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) at No. 13 to help push the pocket in Buckner’s absence.
Going with another defensive lineman in Round 1 means San Francisco will have added to the front four in five of the last six drafts — and give them five first-round picks along the defensive line for the second-straight season (the list: Armstead, Ford, Thomas, Bosa and Kinlaw/Brown).
Kinlaw (6-5, 324) is the most Buckner-like prospect in the class. He’s considered raw but would have a great chance to develop into an impact player because of the talent surrounding him. And the 49ers have ties with the South Carolina program where they found Samuel last season.
Peter King, who’s plugged into San Francisco’s front office, in his weekly Football Morning in America column this week wrote, “I hear the Niners are desperate for a space-eating defensive tackle who can threaten the pocket, and that’s what the 315-pound and athletic Kinlaw does.”
Brown is more known for his stout run defense as a nose tackle, though he has the overwhelming power to impact the passing game and could also work well alongside Bosa, Armstead and Ford.
The player selected at No. 13 would get paid roughly $16 million over the first four years of his contract. Buckner, meanwhile, is slated to make $21 million per season after signing his four-year, $84 million extension with the Colts. With Kittle, Fred Warner and others needing new contracts down the line, swapping out an expensive veteran defensive tackle for a rookie makes plenty of financial sense. And the team could still add a top-flight receiver later.
The 49ers have a 50% hit rate in the first round under the current regime. Its first draft in 2017 yielded 10 players, though only one has proven to be an effective starter. That’s George Kittle, the fifth-round choice turned record-setting All-Pro, who’s been good enough to overshadow a not-so-productive class that included two opening-round disappointments.
It began with Solomon Thomas, the No. 3 overall pick who hasn’t been more than a situational pass rusher for San Francisco with six sacks in three seasons. The team traded back into Round 1 for troubled linebacker Reuben Foster, who couldn’t last beyond his second campaign because of a laundry list of issues away from football.
McGlinchey, a good but not spectacular right tackle, has been steady enough to be counted on as a long-term fixture. He’ll either stay on the right side or slide to the left to replace Staley. Bosa was a home run selection who immediately elevated a mediocre defense to elite.
Bosa was an easy pick for a team that badly needed to upgrade the pass rush. Adding McGlilnchey took some foresight and looks like a justifiable decision. There’s no doubt the team would probably take the Thomas and Foster moves back if they could.
All of which is to say, there’s no guarantee the 49ers are going to nail their first-round decisions.