Where are we? I took the Monday statistics of COVID-19 for the countries with the highest number of cases. I do not have the resources, or patience to do all 195. Then I looked up the populations, and calculated the rate of infection, cases per million residents, which is more instructive than the total. They are: Spain, 2,935; Switzerland, 2,707; Italy, 2,209; France, 1,508; United States, 1,079; Germany, 1,078; United Kingdom, 759; Iran, 729; Turkey, 360; and China, 58.
The lowest three are notorious police states, although Turkey had been a democracy.
The four of the top five are notoriously hard to govern. Mussolini said that to govern Italy was useless. De Gaulle said that to govern France was impossible, with 267 kinds of cheese. Spain is in constant revolution and the U.S. started with one and has a culture of internal rebellion. Switzerland is hard to categorize, but notoriously independent. It also has fewer people than New York, making statistics troublesome. The citizens of Germany and United Kingdom are famously well disciplined.
Looked at in that context the USA is not doing badly.
If you look at fatalities, the list does not change a lot, but China moves up from No. 10 to No. 3.
And United Kingdom to No. 4. Turkey goes to the bottom, but again we are dealing with the statistical danger of small numbers. We also are comparing countries that may or may not have free speech, free press and transparent government. India and Russia numbers are suspiciously low and North Korea does not report at all. For all we know they all could be dead.
Most of us knew, subconsciously that pandemic was a risk that could happen. It has happened before, but nobody could predict when; like volcanoes or hurricanes. Experts saw it coming, but they were ignored or ridiculed for being disloyal. Many things that should have been done in January are just starting now.
Many factors affect the severity of the outbreak. Population density is a big one. Most weeks on Hawaii Island, I might interact with a dozen people. Once in a while, 100. A New Yorker might interact with a 100 a day before they get to work. The outbreak seems to hit harder where buildings are older. In Italian movies buildings look like ancient ruins. Los Angeles is relatively newer than New York. Korea has been rebuilt since 1952.
Many countries with low infection rates are ethnically homogeneous. Almost every language on Earth is spoken in America. Mobility is a factor; we are the most mobile society in history and mostly in the privacy of our own car. New York, Europe and China are dependent on crowded transit. Big cities are plagued with air pollution.
Our medical system, or lack of one; private, government and public-private systems that on some levels barely communicate with one another and millions of people left out. Nobody knows how many ventilators we have or where. Sick people have to guess where they can get and afford care. Perhaps, we could suspend co-pay, or any pay for COVID-19. That would encourage people to get care sooner and save the time wasted figuring out whom to bill for how much. Forty percent of our medical dollars go to insurance one way or another. China has universal care but of questionable quality. Italy has a single payer program, but it failed them.
Churchill said you can trust Americans to do the right thing after they have exhausted all the alternatives. This is where we are. We knew in early January that this was coming, but did not invoke the defense production act, that could have produced a billion masks by now, until April. We were late instituting quarantine that could have saved half the people we lost. Too many people ignored the warning. Critical decisions were based on partisanship not experience or science. Both major political parties failed to vet their potential Presidential candidates and allowed interlopers who were not committed to the party’s ideals to run. We elected a President who is__________________. Fill in the blank.
If I actually get that $1,200, I will donate it to The Food Basket. Our hungry keiki are our future.