HILO — Geologists say the eruption on Kilauea’s lower East Rift Zone most likely will continue for months to years.
That’s a preliminary analysis contained in a report the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory recently submitted to Hawaii County Civil Defense.
The eruption, which started May 3 in Leilani Estates, has far outpaced other eruptions in the area in terms of volume in the past couple hundred years, and is producing an 8-mile-long lava channel to the ocean at Ahalanui. More than 700 homes have been destroyed.
Geologists say the sustained withdrawal of magma from Kilauea’s summit without appreciable ground deformation on the lower rift zone suggests the eruption remains stable.
“If the ongoing eruption maintains its current style of activity at a high eruption rate, then it may take months to a year or two to wind down,” the report says. “While this seems to be the most likely outcome, a pause in the eruption, followed by additional activity, cannot be ruled out, nor can an abrupt cessation or a transition to a steady, longer-lived activity at a lower effusion rate.”
The eruption has remained focused at fissure 8 within Leilani since late May and the chances of it moving to another site are becoming less likely, though still possible, the report says.
The fissure has created a cinder cone more than 180 feet tall, but continues to erupt over a 200- to 260-foot-long segment and, if it becomes more concentrated, could create lava fountains nearly 1,000 feet tall and spread Pele’s hair and cinder over a wider area.
Gas emissions also remain much higher than recent years, with more than 30,000 metric tons per day being released. That’s more than four times the daily average for the summit prior to May 3.
“Fissure 8 is now the dominant producer of volcanic gas on the island of Hawaii and will remain so as long as current rates of eruption continue,” the report says.
The document looks at different hazards posed by the ongoing event, including the potential for other residential areas to be inundated.
For residents of Nanawale Estates and Waa Waa area, the main risk appears to be a blockage in the lava channel, itself now 72 feet tall in places, which could divert the flow. That was seen near Kapoho Crater, when the flow moved toward Ahalanui and destroyed the “Warm Pond” and Kua o ka La Public Charter School.
The ocean entry there has spread toward Isaac Hale Beach Park and Pohoiki boat ramp, but remained 0.3 miles from the ramp as of Friday afternoon.
Collapse events at Kilauea’s summit has damaged Highway 11 at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. The state Department of Transportation is reducing the speed limit there to 25 miles per hour between mile markers 28 and 30.
To view HVO’s report, visit https://tinyurl.com/LERZeruption.
Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
I see. So it will either continue or stop or stop and then start and then stop.
In other news the stock market will go up or maybe down but possibly stay the same before going up or down.
Yes, it reads like it was written by lawyers not scientists.
Geologists mostly study the past, ask them about the present and they tell you precedent. Which is why it sounds like it was written by lawyers.
The only science in there is the observation that the magma pressure is constant. But nobody thinks to explore why.
The obvious candidate is the summit collapse, given this correlates with pulses at the vent. Make a plot the rate of 4.5+ summit earthquakes over the last 7 weeks, the trend is a falling rate. This trend can be extrapolated to zero quakes, which happens around mid September.
If the summit collapses are indeed the source of the magma pressure, then the event will be all done in September.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/14504185f81ee77ece27ab39ee3bac89cc2da42263c1d099bf84af84658ff6c8.jpg
Here is that plot
Just the possibility of years of heavy VOG is bad news for West side tourism and real estate. Why would anyone want to visit a place, or buy a home or property located in thick pollution, with no end in sight?
Fortunately Hawaii has a pro-business atmosphere which has resulted in a well diversified economy with lots of opportunities for all.
LOL, exactly!
There are probably a lot of people who can tolerate intermittent, short-duration vog events just fine — minor discomfort to no noticeable effects at all. But how many of them will begin to experience issues with more frequent or prolonged chronic exposure? Same thing would apply to crops, from an ag perspective.
And the uncertainty is a grinder. The day you finally decide to throw in the towel could wind up being the last day of the (current) eruption for years thereafter. Or it could just be another day…
I completely agree with you. Many people will show no immediate effects. Regardless, humans take about 23,000 breaths a day, and if they are not in purified air the fine particulates are so small they can enter the bloodstream through the lungs, all day.
The uncertainty about when it could end is a real problem. Most disruptive events come and go (hurricanes, floods, etc.), but years of polluted air (who says it won’t get much worse) really changes the dynamics of the region (land and home purchases, agriculture as you pointed out, etc.).