It’s NCAA Tournament time, which means everybody becomes an expert on college basketball and tries to predict the Final Four.
It’s NCAA Tournament time, which means everybody becomes an expert on college basketball and tries to predict the Final Four.
Of course, it always seems to be the person who knows the least about college basketball who wins the office pool, so that’s why I’ve thrown expert analysis out and come up with a more scientific model that has served me well.
The process of picking a winner and the Final Four becomes a lot easier if you first eliminate teams that have no shot of getting to the promised land. But in order to do that, you must first develop categories that automatically disqualify teams.
So, here are mine:
The State Division
This is an oldie but goodie for me — eliminate any team that has a non-existent state in its name. That means saying goodnight to Kent State, Jacksonville State and Wichita State.
The Overly Abbreviated Conference Division
Eliminate any team from a conference that is known by an abbreviation of four or more letters. That means saying bye-bye to the MEAC (North Carolina Central), SWAC (Texas Southern) and MAAC (Iona).
The Directional School Division
Eliminate any team with a direction in its name. One exception is if the direction is part of the name of a state, such as North Carolina or South Carolina. So, Southern California, Northern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central (which must really stink, being in two categories) and East Tennessee State are all gone. Heck, throw Northwestern in there, too.
The Religious Name School Division
I’m sure God loves the NCAA Tournament, but even he can’t help schools that sound too religious. Southern Methodist, Mount St. Mary’s and St. Mary’s are all gone.
The National Park Division
Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana and the Dakotas are all God’s country and provide some of the most beautiful places on the planet. But that doesn’t mean they can hoop there. So, goodbye to New Mexico State, North Dakota, South Dakota State and Nevada. Might as well throw Minnesota into this category, as well, because of its lakes.
The Big City Name Division
Cincinnati has a great barbecue joint, and New Orleans has, well, a lot of things, but neither team has a prayer in this tournament. Nor do Providence, Miami or Dayton, for that matter. One exception is Louisville, but only because it apparently has the best “extra benefits” package for recruits who visit.
The Stupid Name Division
If it doesn’t sound like the name of a college, get rid of it. Creighton is a packaging company, right? Florida Gulf Coast is a NASA center or an airport. Seton Hall is a banquet facility. Virginia Commonwealth is a bank. Bucknell is a taxidermy business. Troy is a former Cowboys quarterback. Baylor is a knock-off aspirin company. Winthrop is an aristocrat smoking a pipe. Wake Forest is where monkeys and sloths live. And what is Butler’s real name, Benson? And what the heck is a Gonzaga anyway?
The Branch Campus Division
There is always one exception to this rule, and that is UCLA. But UC-Davis and UNC-Wilmington are all out before I even get started.
And finally, a new division for this year …
Schools That Lost to Pitt Division
I mean, come on, Florida State, Virginia, Marquette and Maryland, are you kidding me?
You many think I’m being too harsh, but see how few exceptions there are to these rules the last 20 years. Very few teams in these categories have actually advanced to the Final Four. Now that the heavy lifting is out of the way, it’s time to take a look at the handful of teams that actually do have a prayer of winning their region and perhaps even winning the championship.
Sean Miller is a brilliant coach, but he could have had his own division using this method because he never has been to the Final Four as a player, assistant or head coach. I think that changes this year as Arizona looks like the class of the West Region.
Kansas didn’t play well in the Big 12 tournament, but the Jayhawks have a virtual bye to the Final Four. Louisville is the No. 2 seed, Oregon is the No. 3 seed, and I think both are ripe for an early exit.
The East Region is easy, too. It will come down to a regional final between Villanova and Duke. I’ve said for the past month that I think Villanova is the best team in the field, so I’ll stick with it and say the Wildcats get to their second Final Four in a row.
Finally, we get to the South Region, which is really difficult. I’m quite sure Lavar Ball has UCLA winning every game by 50, but I don’t like how the Bruins defend. North Carolina is really good, but as we saw in the ACC tournament, the Tar Heels aren’t very deep in the backcourt. That leaves me with Kentucky, which I will reluctantly pick because they’re playing well right now.
So, my Final Four is Arizona, Villanova, Kentucky and Kansas. I’m going to pick the Wildcats to win it all. Of course, I’ll leave you to figure out WHICH Wildcats will win it all.