BEIJING — For years, the United States and others have pressed China’s leaders to suspend imports of coal from North Korea to push the reclusive state to abandon its nuclear weapons program. For years, the Chinese leadership resisted — until
BEIJING — For years, the United States and others have pressed China’s leaders to suspend imports of coal from North Korea to push the reclusive state to abandon its nuclear weapons program. For years, the Chinese leadership resisted — until Saturday, when it suddenly announced in a terse statement that it would do just that.
But if Beijing was sending a message to North Korea, it was also directing one at President Donald Trump, who has complained that China was not putting enough pressure on North Korea.
Now President Xi Jinping of China has essentially said: We have done our part in enforcing sanctions. Over to you, Mr. Trump.
The challenge comes at a tantalizing moment. For weeks now, plans have been afoot for a North Korean government delegation to meet in New York in early March with a group of former U.S. officials who have long been involved in North Korea policy.
Will the Trump administration issue visas to the North Koreans, a move that would suggest the new president is interested at least in hearing from Pyongyang through informal channels?
There have been indications that Trump was willing to take a quite different tack from President Barack Obama.
During his campaign, Trump said he was interested in sharing a hamburger with the 33-year-old leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un. He seemed to suggest he had a smidgen of respect for, or at least curiosity about, the maverick leader, the most recent incarnation of a longstanding dynasty.
Trump’s response to the recent North Korean missile test was restrained, perhaps the result of Obama’s warning after the November election that North Korea would be the incoming president’s most dangerous foreign policy challenge.
“If the visas are issued, it will be a clear message that the Trump administration is prepared to go the extra mile and engage North Korea,” said Evans J.R. Revere, a former principal deputy assistant secretary of state.
There should be little expectation, he warned, of any policy shift by the North, which has shown every indication of wanting to continue building its nuclear program.
The decision whether to allow the meeting to proceed in New York is now freighted with more than the usual complications.
Over the last 10 days, North Korea has shown its full colors. First, the regime flaunted its expanding nuclear capabilities with the test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile that uses a solid-fuel technology that will make it easier for the country to hide its arsenal.
Then, last week, Kim Jong Nam, the half brother of the North Korean leader, was assassinated in Malaysia in a crowded passenger terminal at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. The South Korean government has publicly accused North Korea of the killing, and six North Koreans have been linked to the plot.
The Trump administration faces another, perhaps more profound, decision on how to handle North Korea. Annual joint military exercises, set for March between South Korea and the United States, are expected to involve a U.S. aircraft carrier, advanced stealth fighters, B-52 and B-1B bombers and a nuclear submarine, according to South Korean news reports.
This annual show of force, not far from the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea and off the Korean coast, has traditionally been viewed by North Korea as U.S. preparation for an attack against its forces.
With the heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and Chinese-North Korean relations at a low point, the risk of a strong response by the North to the exercises — through the launch of missiles or a nuclear test — is higher than usual, said Peter Hayes, the executive director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability in Berkeley, California.
Last year, for example, the North conducted its fifth nuclear test during joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises.
“We are likely entering a new and extremely dangerous phase of the Korean conflict,” Hayes said. He suggested ramping down the exercises to “avoid inadvertent clashes and escalation to nuclear war, and to probe North Korean intentions.”
China would like the Trump administration to deal directly with North Korea. Beijing’s suspension of coal imports from North Korea was a signal that China was being tougher than usual, offering Trump a concession to bring Washington to the table with the North.
But how much impact a suspension of coal imports would have on the rudimentary and seemingly resilient North Korean economy was far from clear.
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