When Major League Baseball introduced the wild-card game in 2012, it was a new phenomenon. For the first time, there would be regularly scheduled single-elimination games in the postseason.
When Major League Baseball introduced the wild-card game in 2012, it was a new phenomenon. For the first time, there would be regularly scheduled single-elimination games in the postseason.
For all of baseball history, postseason series had been decided by multiple-game playoffs, often five or seven games, testing an entire pitching staff and allowing teams a chance to come back after a poor game or two. Now teams, including those with 90 wins or more, would face off in a life-or-death game.
The wild-card game is now entering its fifth year, and some trends are starting to develop.
As you might expect, teams have sent their aces out for these make-or-break games, and the games have on balance been low scoring. Despite a 9-8, 12-inning barnburner between the Oakland A’s and the Kansas City Royals in 2014, the average team has scored only 3.7 runs in wild-card games. (In the 2016 regular season, the average run total was 4.5 per team per game.)
The temperatures of October may also have contributed; statistically, teams score less in colder weather.
More strikingly, there have been four shutouts in the eight games, spun by Alex Cobb of the Tampa Bay Rays, Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros, Madison Bumgarner of the San Francisco Giants and Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs. (Cobb and Keuchel had help from their bullpens.)
Bumgarner is back this week, taking his 15-9 record and 2.74 earned run average into the National League wild-card game against the New York Mets and their starter, Noah Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60), on Wednesday night. With the Giants and the Mets ranked ninth and 11th in runs scored in the National League, we might expect another low-scoring game. The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays meet on Tuesday night in the American League.
Eight games is a small sample size for team performance, and thus far only the Pittsburgh Pirates have appeared in more than one wild-card game. They are 1-2. This year’s teams have no negative history with the wild card. The Orioles and the Giants are each 1-0, while the Blue Jays and the Mets are newcomers to the game.
One of the justifications for sticking the wild-card teams into one-game playoffs is that they were somehow unworthy of the playoffs, being division runners-up rather than champions. But despite being handcuffed by having to use their best starting pitcher in the single-elimination game, and having to play the best team in the league in the next round, the wild-card winners have fared well in the postseason. Their combined record after the wild-card game is 37-21, and they are 7-7 in series. In 2014, the two wild-card winners, the Giants and the Royals, met in the World Series, with the Giants winning.
With teams like the 103-win Cubs, the Washington Nationals, the Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox resting and waiting, this year’s wild-card winners may seem like long shots to win it all. But history has shown that once the team clears the nerve-racking single-game eliminator, it has every chance of making a deep playoff run.
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