Let’s begin with a presumption of innocence for Ezekiel Elliott, since that sounds like the American thing to do.
Let’s begin with a presumption of innocence for Ezekiel Elliott, since that sounds like the American thing to do.
The Cowboys rookie running back claims to have text messages that prove his former girlfriend was trying to set him up on domestic violence charges, a story that broke Friday morning and one that he and the Cowboys were trying to diffuse quickly. So let’s assume for now that he is correct and this story goes away. If it doesn’t, there will be plenty of time for hand-wringing and the casting of stones later.
Even if Elliott’s world is quickly restored to exactly what it was a few days ago — that is, the No. 1 jersey seller in the league and a presumptive top pick in a few million fantasy drafts — haven’t we gotten ahead of ourselves in seeing him as the one to restore glory to the star on the helmet?
Don’t misunderstand. I was in favor of the Cowboys drafting Elliott at No. 4 over Florida State’s Jalen Ramsey or any possible helping hand on defense. The return to the 2014 way of life when DeMarco Murray carried 392 times and made life easier for Tony Romo and the Dallas defense was the proper way for the Cowboys to go about their business this spring.
But two things stand out that make me question whether this team is ready to rise up from its 4-12 ashes and claim the once proud NFC East crown as its own.
The first is that Elliott was the only marquee player the Cowboys acquired in the wake of last year’s downturn. You know the rundown on the draft. Second-round pick Jaylon Smith won’t play this year. Third-round pick Maliek Collins, injured early, will have to fight his way back. One of the fourth-round picks, Dak Prescott, is thought to be nowhere close to NFL-ready at quarterback.
As for free agency, the recent addition of linebacker Justin Durant, who played well enough here in his first stint, ranks alongside any move they made in the spring — unless the additions of defensive linemen Cedric Thornton (Eagles) or Benson Mayowa (Raiders) turn out to be more game-changing than anyone expects.
The good news in the secondary is that Brandon Carr costs less than he used to. This is progress?
The Cowboys, of course, are banking on getting 16 games out of Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, which didn’t come close to happening in 2015. Time will tell on that, but, regardless, this team is counting on Elliott reprising the Murray role and serving as its most dependable player.
How realistic is that?
Eric Dickerson ran for 1,808 yards as a rookie coming out of SMU more than 30 years ago. But we knew Dickerson was special from his days at Sealy. The NFL was a runner’s league in the ’80s. It isn’t anymore, but that didn’t stop the Cowboys from riding the strength of their powerful offensive line to get within a few moments (or one catch) of reaching the NFC championship game two years ago on a run-based offense.
Running backs aren’t as hard to evaluate as quarterbacks, but NFL teams still misfire a lot. Trent Richardson was the third pick coming out of Alabama in 2012. He’s with his fourth team. There is little chance of Elliott becoming another Richardson.
But how much better is he than Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon? They both starred in the Big Ten. They both scored 41 rushing touchdowns their last two college seasons. Elliott ran a 4.47 at the NFL combine to Gordon’s 4.52.
Gordon was good enough to go 15th to San Diego last year. His rookie season was mostly a disaster. A player who averaged more than 7.5 yards per carry his last two years as a Badger and scored all those TDs ran for 3.5 and never scored.
Elliott’s probably better than Gordon. But how much? The Cowboys are counting on the answer being “a heck of a lot,” and we know that their superior offensive line gives him a greater chance at instant success.
But, to put it mildly, running the ball in the NFL is not like college. Elliott won’t be significantly faster than the linebackers chasing him. This is a new world. He should be positioned to thrive, but some backs need that second or third year before they hit their stride.
The Cowboys will just start to figure all of this out next weekend in Oxnard. And they will keep their fingers crossed that Elliott’s biggest worries in 2016 will be blitzing linebackers and not Instagram postings.