WASHINGTON — The United Kingdom’s stunning vote to leave the European Union was driven by much of the same sentiment that fueled Donald Trump’s insurgent march toward the Republican presidential nod: a rejection of economic globalization and the elites who
WASHINGTON — The United Kingdom’s stunning vote to leave the European Union was driven by much of the same sentiment that fueled Donald Trump’s insurgent march toward the Republican presidential nod: a rejection of economic globalization and the elites who favor it by those who feel left behind.
Many economists warn that the British vote to leave the EU, dubbed “Brexit,” could cripple that nation’s economy — just as many say Trump’s ideas would stifle U.S. growth or even trigger another recession.
Millions of voters have defied those concerns. The Brexit vote and Trump’s widespread support reflect a sweeping rejection of expert opinion in advanced countries. Yet that rejection itself could raise the likelihood of further economic harm, some economists warn.
“At some level it is a cry of frustration but one that could end up hurting an already economically harmed part of the population,” says Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University and former official at the International Monetary Fund. “That is the remarkable irony here.”
At first glance, the U.K. and U.S. economies look comparatively healthy. Both have low unemployment rates. Both have recovered from the Great Recession better than either continental Europe or Japan. Yet in both countries, those figures conceal underlying weaknesses.
David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth University and a former policymaker at the Bank of England, says average weekly pay in the U.K., adjusted for inflation, remains 7 percent below its most recent peak, reached in 2008.
Stark regional differences are also evident in both countries. London has boomed in recent years along with its thriving financial sector, and home prices in the city have soared. By contrast, steel plants and coal mines have closed in Northern England and Wales.
