Ag experts brace for ‘grim’ conditions that could match parched ‘98

Subscribe Now Choose a package that suits your preferences.
Start Free Account Get access to 7 premium stories every month for FREE!
Already a Subscriber? Current print subscriber? Activate your complimentary Digital account.

KAILUA-KONA — The drought drags on, drying up catchment tanks, killing the limbs of fruit trees and leaving coffee orchards slow to bloom.

KAILUA-KONA — The drought drags on, drying up catchment tanks, killing the limbs of fruit trees and leaving coffee orchards slow to bloom.

It’s too early to know when the rain will begin falling in the bucketfuls that the island has become accustomed to. February totals are far below average, following the driest January on record for some areas and the lowest rainfall in that month since 1998 for the island overall.

It seems the island had better brace for more drought as forecasters fail to find much indication that conditions will improve over the next few months.

“Last time there was a strong El Nino anything like what we have now, it was the first year of a four-year drought,” said National Weather Service hydrologist Kevin Kodama.

He was referring to 1998, which had the strongest El Nino on record — a cyclical weather pattern that tends to bring dry, stable air over the islands for months at a time. Ken Love, who grows fruit and avocados in Kealakekua, remembers the year well; he hand-carried water to acres of small trees to keep them alive.

Now, he’s seeing reminders of that year.

“I’m seeing a lot of die-back in citrus,” he said. “There were almost no avocados.”

“This is the worst one yet,” he said of the drought. “It’s not as sustained but it’s much worse for a short period.”

The ongoing El Nino will likely rank not far behind 1998’s when all of the factors are measured, according to climate scientists. But it’s too early to say exactly what the damage has been to Big Island agriculture, said Hawaii Department of Agriculture Chairman Scott Enright, who noted that drought projections for the coming months are “grim.”

Holualoa coffee farmer Bruce Corker said it remains to be seen how the rest of the traditional dry season unfolds; but the current course will likely lead to a reduced crop. The drought has kept the coffee largely dormant, and there has been only one significant flowering at a date when the orchards should have finished two or three blooms, he said.

“That causes problems with the coffee because a lot comes at once, probably in October,” Corker said. “And it’ll be hard to find pickers.”

Most rain gauges on the island are lower than 50 percent of normal for February, said Kodama. A few areas have picked up rain, but leeward Kohala is less than 10 percent of average, Honaunau is 15 percent, Waimea is 65 percent and Hilo Airport is 37 percent of normal for the month.

Water hauling trucks are working overtime to bring water to dry catchment tanks, and water conservation notices are in effect in Honalo, Kealakekua and Waimea. The Hawaii County Department of Water Supply is urging a 10 percent reduction in water use and for residents to refrain from washing partial laundry loads, to irrigate at night and to minimize water used for cleaning. DWS so far has been able to keep up with demand, but conservation is especially important during periods of low rainfall, DWS director Keith Okamoto said.

“Sometimes, people use more water during drought times,” he said. “It’s a good idea to conserve.”

Reports of drought conditions on farms and ranches are trickling in, particularly from the leeward side, said Lester Ueda, county executive director for the USDA Farm Service Agency.

“(Ranchers) have started to haul water and provide supplements to their livestock,” Ueda said in an email. “Some ranchers have said they have seen very minimum rainfall since October 2015 — basically four months now with little or no rainfall. Their pastures are drying up. One rancher said he has a lot of forage, but the cows are not eating it. The forage has dried out beyond any nutrition. Consequently, some ranchers have had to destock their herds already. One as much as 35 percent.”

Grass in the Glenwood area is drier than he has ever seen it there, Ueda said, and a Hilo banana farmer on Monday reported that her fruits were not developing properly for lack of water.

Ueda urged farmers and ranchers to continue to report drought conditions.

Dry times just come with the territory when you’re farming in Hawaii, said Greg Smith, owner of Earth Matters Farm in South Point. He’s had to make his own adjustments over the past few months.

“I’ll bet I’ve doubled my water bill,” said Smith, whose 3.5-acre operation does intense production of numerous vegetable varieties. “My bill is probably $300 to $400 a month. That’s not insignificant.”