Tennis: First-round defeat raises more questions for Nadal

MELBOURNE, Australia — Rafael Nadal did not see this early loss coming.

In 2015 he struggled with his confidence and punching power under pressure and talked openly about his self-doubts. But after quick exits at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, he returned home to the Spanish island of Majorca in September, reflected, recommitted himself, and found his form in the season’s closing months.

He played convincing, aggressive tennis in a phase of the season during which he has often slumped, recovering the sting in his forehand, the whipping stroke that has been his signature shot throughout his remarkable career and his 14 major singles titles.

Back here for the Australian Open, he practiced long and hard last week, beating Andy Murray and others while sticking true to his new principles by staying tight to the baseline.

Yet it all led to nothing but more frustration on Tuesday when Nadal once again failed to close the deal against a much-lower-ranked opponent in one of the tournaments that matters most.

Despite leading by two sets to one against Fernando Verdasco and despite leading by 2-0 with a break point in the fifth set, Nadal ended up losing in the first round.

“It’s one of the biggest disappointments we’ve had,” Toni Nadal, his coach and uncle, said in an interview Wednesday with Spanish radio. “All losses hurt, or nearly all, but to go out in the first round of a tournament that is so important like the Australian Open and to have come in here playing well for three or four months, that is what is very disappointing.”

The doubts about everything from Rafael Nadal’s coaching structure to his tactics and mental game to his foot speed at age 29 will now swirl again.

Once No. 1, he has clawed his way back to No. 5, but will drop again.

Since winning his ninth French Open title in 2014, he has not gone past the quarterfinals in any Grand Slam event. During that stretch he has been beaten by four players on tour who were ranked outside the top 100 and three more outside the top 50.

His last three Grand Slam singles results are the worst three consecutive results in majors in his career: a second-round loss at Wimbledon to Dustin Brown, a third-round loss at the U.S. Open to Fabio Fognini, and Tuesday’s first-round loss to Verdasco, who has beaten him in three of their last four matches but had never beaten him in a Grand Slam tournament.

Jim Courier, the U.S. Davis Cup captain and former world No. 1, sees a common thread.

“These guys realized they had to try to take the racket out of Rafa’s hand by overpowering him,” Courier said Wednesday in Melbourne. “It’s a strategy that frankly has been employed too infrequently against the big four. Those guys have been too good for the field if you allow them to play their way. Disruption is the only option to cause an upset since they so rarely beat themselves with unforced errors.”

Nadal also believes that part of the problem comes from him.

“In terms of being competitive, I was competitive,” he said after losing to Verdasco. “In terms of creating damage to the opponent with my forehand, I didn’t. So I was hitting forehands, and he was able to keep hitting winners. Cannot happen when I am hitting my forehand. The opponent, if he wants to hit a winner, it’s because he takes too much risk. In my opinion, was not the case today.”

Nadal added: “He was able to keep going for big shots in a not very bad position. That was the biggest issue for me today. I don’t know a hundred percent the reason, to be honest. I was doing that good on the practices and the previous tournaments.”

Compared with his great seasons, there is no doubt Nadal is in decline. The question is whether he can reverse it, as Roger Federer did at a more advanced age after his slump in 2013. Federer roared back in 2014 and 2015 to reach No. 2 in the rankings and three more singles finals in the majors.

“I believe Rafa can put himself in a winning position again,” Darren Cahill, a leading coach and analyst, said before the tournament. “A lot of people are talking about the fact he had a pretty average year last year, but he finished up the year number five in the world. He’s healthy and finished the year playing some good tennis, so I think those are some good signs from him.”

The good news is that here comes the clay, long Nadal’s safe haven. He is the greatest men’s player ever on the surface, and he will play a majority of the next four months on it, beginning — if he sticks to his schedule — with Rio de Janeiro next month.

But getting past Novak Djokovic to win a 10th French Open title may well be too much to ask. Djokovic, ranked No. 1 in the world, has beaten Nadal soundly in their recent matches, including the French Open quarterfinal last year.

“Nadal’s chances at Roland Garros are still good, but he needs a consistent period of excellence to regain his aura in the locker room,” Courier said. “He is more vulnerable now than he has been since he was a teenager, and the effective game plan has been exposed for others to see.”

The margins are small at this level, and the sort of confidence and taste for risk that Fognini and Verdasco have displayed down the stretch against Nadal could well prove contagious.

Nadal also has shown a new tendency to blow leads. His loss to Fognini at the U.S. Open marked the first time Nadal had lost after leading two sets to love, and in recent months he has been reeled in by Feliciano López, Milos Raonic and now Verdasco.

“Lack of confidence shows up in Nadal’s depth of shot or lack thereof,” Courier said. “And that has allowed guys with shotmaking ability, like Fognini and Verdasco, to be able to overpower him. When Rafa was confident, he was seemingly always in charge against all but the best players. But yesterday Fernando was the one giving constant dictation.”

Regaining control of the conversation will be quite a challenge for Nadal.