ALBANY, N.Y. — The polar vortex that brought strong winters to the Capital Region the last two years is showing signs that while winter won’t come early this season, it might grow fierce enough later to keep the groundhog in
ALBANY, N.Y. — The polar vortex that brought strong winters to the Capital Region the last two years is showing signs that while winter won’t come early this season, it might grow fierce enough later to keep the groundhog in his den, according to a national expert based in the University at Albany.
Now stronger than average, the vortex — made up of high-speed, high-altitude winds that spin around the North Pole each winter — should keep Arctic cold penned in through the start of the Christmas season or so, according to Andrea Lang, an assistant professor of atmospheric and environmental science who studies the vortex.
As Weather Channel buffs may already know, there are such vortexes above the planet’s two polar regions; faster winds form a tighter circle, acting as a kind of fence to hold in extreme cold from flowing southward. While the polar vortex became a common term during the harsh winter of 2013-14, the science behind the vortex has its beginnings in the 1940s.
Retreating sea ice around the North Pole seems to be causing that vortex to weaken and loosen its shape, which the last two winters allowed extreme cold to plunge much farther south in the Northeast, including the Capital Region, while places untouched by the vortex, like Alaska, saw record heat and little snow.
A warmer winter matches up with national long-range weather forecasts, which credit a stronger El Nino warming effect in the Pacific Ocean. But Lang said a stronger-than-average polar vortex at the start of winter has a greater chance to grow increasingly unstable as the season progresses, making it more likely that the vortex could become more misshapen, sending late blasts of cold air and snow to some southerly regions.
The vortex is usually at its weakest — and thus prone to wander — from late December through February. “There is a statistical likelihood that the vortex could become more volatile later in the winter,” Lang said. “We will keep watching it.”
But whatever the vortex does this season, consumers should remain snug in their homes without facing costly heating bills — prices for propane, heating oil and natural gas are near record lows and inventories are overflowing.
In New York, about a quarter-million homeowners, primarily in rural areas, heat with propane. Two years ago, a vortex-driven cold snap coincided with a nationwide propane shortage and rising prices, which added about $100 million to the heating bills in the state.
“Inventories of propane are at record highs. We have 100 million barrels waiting for winter, where normally we would have 50 million to 60 million,” said Tucker Perkins, chief of business development for the Washington, D.C.-based Propane Education & Research Council.
State energy officials are also predicting that home heating bills should be lower for people who heat with propane (down 18 percent from last year), heating oil (down 25 percent) and natural gas (down 10 percent).
According to a report this week by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, the average home propane bill — which in 2013-14 was more than $4,300 — should be about $3,300 this year. For heating oil, the decline would be from $3,500 to about $2,300. For natural gas, the average bill for the period should drop from about $1,030 to about $930.
Propane users should breathe easy for the next few years, said Perkins. Supplies of propane, a byproduct of natural gas, are increasing, largely due to natural gas hydrofracking in Pennsylvania, Ohio and other states.
Since 2008, propane production in Eastern states has gone up more than 600 percent, about 10 times the rate of propane production overall, according to a report this week from the U.S. Department of Energy.
“For New York, we have more propane coming from the Marcellus Shale (in Pennsylvania). Now, we have a large supply, and flat demand,” said Perkins. “Prices are down this year, and we expect prices to remain flat the next four to five years, which should give people who use propane some comfort.” He encouraged homeowners to start the season with full propane tanks and have a dealer lined up through the winter to ensure timely deliveries.
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