India’s announcement of a long-term plan to combat greenhouse gas emissions brings on board all the world’s major economies — including big polluters like the United States, China, the European Union and Brazil — with national pledges to address climate change.
India’s announcement of a long-term plan to combat greenhouse gas emissions brings on board all the world’s major economies — including big polluters like the United States, China, the European Union and Brazil — with national pledges to address climate change.
India’s pledge is among the least ambitious of the big emitters, but even so, with less than two months to go before a critical U.N. climate conference in Paris, it is an important development. In contrast to past efforts to reduce greenhouse gases by assigning specific emissions levels only to industrialized countries, while giving developing countries like India a pass (an approach that met with stiff resistance in the United States), the Paris conference is asking every country to create its own plan.
In August, President Barack Obama announced America’s Clean Power Plan, which proposes to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the power industries by 32 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, and he has spoken passionately and traveled widely since to drive home the urgent need to take action on climate change.
China, the world’s biggest carbon polluter, followed suit by pledging to have emissions peak in 2030, and President Xi Jinping on his recent visit to the United States announced plans to start a national carbon-trading scheme in 2017. Gone are the days when China and the United States could blame each other for inaction.
With plans from Europe and Brazil also on file, that had left India as the last major polluter to present its pledge. In the past, India resisted carbon limits in favor of development, arguing that rich countries like the United States should bear responsibility for global warming and poor countries should have a chance to raise their living standards. It has a case there — an average American’s activities generate about 17 tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year, while in India, where 400 million people don’t have electricity or clean cooking fuel, annual per capita emissions are 1.9 tons per person.
Even now, India, unlike the United States and China, is resisting an absolute cap on emissions, instead pledging to lower the rate of increase from burning fossil fuels while investing heavily in wind, solar and other clean-energy alternatives. India claims that under the plan its economy can still grow sevenfold by 2030 from 2005 levels, while carbon emissions will only triple. But the very fact that India has signed on is a breakthrough.
Eventually, of course, India will have to do better, as will every country. According to Climate Interactive, a group whose analyses are used by the United States and many other governments, all the pledges made so far would allow the Earth to heat up by more than 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s less than the 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit it would reach without the pledges, but it’s far from the stated goal of limiting global warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius, beyond which the world’s natural systems could be in deep trouble, with widespread droughts, steadily rising sea levels, species loss and catastrophic storms.
Still, it’s better for now to focus on the good news, and to make sure that the pledges made by some 140 countries so far lead to a genuine turning point in the carbon struggle. The major task before the negotiators who will gather in Paris on Nov. 30 will be to follow up on the pledges with a plan for steady progress over the next few decades, so the 3.6-degree target remains in sight — as well as an agreed-upon scheme for monitoring and reporting each country’s performance.
Transparency — a divisive issue at the last big climate summit meeting, in Copenhagen in 2009 — is critical.
The hope in Paris must be that once it becomes clear that carbon emissions can be reduced equitably and at a lower cost than once feared, countries will assume greater responsibility for saving the planet.
© 2015 The New York Times Company