The forecast track for Tropical Storm Ana continued to shift away from the Big Island on Thursday, and the system weakened further overnight Wednesday, but forecasters said the island should still expect storm force winds, heavy rains, high surf and
The forecast track for Tropical Storm Ana continued to shift away from the Big Island on Thursday, and the system weakened further overnight Wednesday, but forecasters said the island should still expect storm force winds, heavy rains, high surf and flash flooding.
“People should continue to make preparations as they’ve been advised to do,” said National Weather Service forecaster Kevin Kodama. “We’re not out off the woods by any means.”
Damaging winds of 40 mph and higher could hit the south part of the Big Island and Kailua-Kona from early Friday evening to Saturday afternoon. Surf to 30 feet on Ka‘u and Puna shorelines and 15 feet in Kailua-Kona are expected Friday evening as Ana makes her closest approach to the island.
The island is under tropical storm watch, and a flash flood watch is effective from noon Friday to 6 p.m. Sunday, with up to 20 inches of rain along southeast slopes. Offshore waters are under a hurricane warning effective Friday afternoon.
Moderate wind shear weakened Ana to a 60 mph storm by Thursday morning, but the cyclone was forecast to strengthen briefly to hurricane status and pack 75 mph wind as it brushes past the island on Friday night and Saturday. The storm is on course to pass about 85 miles southwest of South Point, then weaken as it encounters increased vertical shear from an approaching upper level trough.
Even though Ana has passed over water that is warm enough to fuel the storm, it is encountering wind shear and has struggled to organize itself, Kodama said.
“It goes through bursts,” he said. “It organizes, then fizzles out.”
“It’s going to be moving into more than warm enough water and there’s a window of opportunity for it to intensify further,” he added.
The likelihood of tropical storm force winds are 43 percent for Kailua-Kona, 54 percent for South Point and 26 percent for Hilo. First signs of high surf showed up Thursday, running 10 feet at the Isaac Hale Beach Park in Puna, according to Hawaii County Civil Defense.
The system was 465 miles southeast of Kailua-Kona on Thursday at 2 p.m., with tropical storm force winds extending 60 miles from the center. South Point was at the edge of the forecast track’s “cone of uncertainty.” The cyclone has been on a westward track and is expected to turn west-northwest Thursday, then veer west on Sunday and skirt to the south of Oahu and Kauai as a tropical storm.
The delay in the cyclone’s predicted turn to the northwest has been good news because it takes the track further away from the island chain. The bad news is that Ana is forecast to slow its forward speed from 13 mph down to 10 mph when it passes the Big Island, to 7 mph as it approaches Oahu.
“That’s the part that makes it dangerous,” Kodama said. “It keeps the winds and the rain around longer.”
All county and state beach parks on the island will close Friday ahead of the storm. Hawaii Volcanoes National Park was also set to close Friday. Public libraries will also close islandwide Friday.
Hawaii Electric Light Co. has activated its incident management team and put staff on alert to make sure employees are ready to respond, said HELCO administrative manager Rhea Lee. The power company has an agreement with mainland utility companies that provides mutual assistance in times of emergency, and the group has been put on notice that HELCO may need additional workers to help out in the aftermath of Ana, Rhea said.
Ana has packed a lot of uncertainty, with the forecast track changing numerous times over the past few days. In Ocean View, residents seemed to be bracing against the unknown, said Gil Robinson, president of the Ocean View Community Association.
“I’ve been boarding up my own house, and some neighbors’ houses,” Robinson said. “We just don’t know.”
