If lower Puna is cut off from the rest of the island because of lava, more than 250 businesses and more than 9,400 residents could be severely impacted.
If lower Puna is cut off from the rest of the island because of lava, more than 250 businesses and more than 9,400 residents could be severely impacted.
By using recent data about the flow and a computer mapping tool, University of Hawaii at Hilo economic geography researcher Mark Kimura has come up with a number of sobering statistics that show just how damaging the flow could be, even to homes and businesses it might never come near.
Geographic isolation will be the key issue with which area residents and businesses must contend in the long run, he said.
“As a state in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, we already know the effect of being geographically isolated, such as higher energy cost, dependency on the rest of the world for our food supply, difficulty in finding jobs, lack of scale economies, etc.,” he wrote in an email. “In the case of lower Puna, if (Highway 130) is disabled, we should immediately start to see the effect (even with alternate routes in place).”
The county has been working for the last several weeks on a pair of roads that would connect lower Puna with Hawaiian Paradise Park, providing a connection to Highway 130 further north from where the lava is expected to cross. Work began Tuesday on a second, larger alternate route along Chain of Craters Road, which leads from Kalapana through Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.
“For both many residents and businesses, longer routes and slower traffic directly translate into cost (whether or not they are aware),” Kimura said. “Some may decide to leave the area even if those two roads stay available for a while. If the lava flow reaches the ocean and Chain of Craters Road is the only option for them, their lives will be even more limited and the social landscape of lower Puna will be different, to say the least.”
Geographic isolation means potentially cutting off imports of food, gasoline, water or most any other resources that need to be trucked in via the highway. It also means potentially cutting off exports — agricultural products such as papayas, flowers and more — that keep area residents employed.
Additionally, those who live in the area won’t be able to commute to jobs outside lower Puna, and vice versa, while visitors will have a hard time entering the area and spending money.
An isolated Puna could mean disastrous economic impacts for many people, Kimura said.
According to his data, 257 businesses are based in lower Puna. More than 100 of them are in the service industry, such as restaurants. Meanwhile, there are 40 retail establishments, 28 agriculture and mining operations and 23 construction businesses, among others. All told, businesses in the region employ almost 1,200 people.
The affected area, as defined by the location along Highway 130 most likely to be crossed by the lava, according to Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists, could contain 9,417 residents, including 1,902 children younger than 15 and 1,450 adults older than 64. The region has 4,885 housing units, including 2,677 occupied by their owners and 1,214 occupied by renters.
The most striking statistic for Kimura was the sheer number of students who could be affected by the lava flow.
“There are so many children and students,” he said. “Among 9,000-plus people in lower Puna, there are approximately 1,900 children under 15 and over 1,000 K-12 students. If they lose access to (Highway 130), their options for education could be extremely limited for a long time. Some of them may be separated from or may already have been separated from their friends.
“They will remember this event for the rest of their lives.”
To see more of Kimura’s maps and data, visit his Facebook page at facebook.com/lowerpuna.
Email Colin M. Stewart at cstewart@hawaiitribune-herald.com.