Kalapana.
Kalapana.
Royal Gardens.
And now … Pahoa?
With a lava flow advancing steadily toward Pahoa, Kilauea appears poised to claim yet another community as part of its 31-year-long eruption.
The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory estimates the flow could cross Pahoa Village Road in about two weeks, with the area just to the west of Post Office Road in its projected path.
Few things are certain when it comes to volcanic eruptions, but the projection is leaving little doubt that this town — the cultural and economic center of lower Puna, home to plantation-era buildings and colorful characters of all walks of life — is under serious threat.
That point was driven home Thursday evening as HVO staff showed a packed Pahoa High School cafeteria a projected path of destruction through the heart of the community.
Previously, HVO scientists were estimating two potential routes for the flow, one near the village center and one closer to its outskirts near Pahoa Marketplace.
With the flow turning more to the northeast, the latter projection was removed from the simulation, leaving the town firmly in Pele’s sights. Consider it the worst-case scenario.
“You can see it now favors the southern route,” said Jim Kauahikaua, HVO scientist-in-charge, noting the path takes it through a more residential area.
Janet Babb, HVO geologist, said the illustration, which wasn’t made available to Stephens Media Hawaii by press time, showed likely paths based on thousands of calculations. It didn’t show the estimated width of the flow.
Almost all of the calculations showed it going through a residential area near the village center.
As of press time Friday, the calculations had not been adjusted.
Catarina Zaragoza wasn’t at the meeting but said she heard about the projection Friday morning.
She said the town remained apprehensive.
“It’s a little bit of a somber attitude,” said Zaragoza, owner of The Locavore Store on Pahoa Village Road.
“There’s a lot of bewilderment. We’re kind of in a daze.”
As of Friday morning, the flow was about 3.1 miles from Pahoa Village Road and 3.5 miles from Highway 130.
Efforts began Thursday to create alternate routes through Railroad Avenue and Government Beach Road should the highway, the lifeline for lower Puna, be covered. The plan is to have Railroad Avenue open between Hawaiian Beaches and Hawaiian Paradise Park by Sept. 24.
The road is also being extended eastward toward Nanawale Estates.
While her shop wasn’t in the projected path, Zaragoza said she still has plenty to worry about, especially if the highway is blocked.
“The possibility of an evacuation, the possibility of closing … power and water shortages. It’s a lot to think about,” she said.
“I think the worst part is being in the middle of waiting for what we need to do and trying to prepare.”
Zaragoza said the prospect of increased isolation is appealing to some.
“A lot of people are kind of excited about it. This idea of being cut off in a survivalist experiment,” she said. “I don’t think it’s realistic. I know there’s talk of that.”
For her, the potential loss of Pahoa remains difficult to think about.
“It’s a landmark and its own place,” Zaragoza said. “There’s no place like it.
“There would be no getting it back, ever.”
Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune-herald.com.