Should Hurricane Iselle continue on its current path, it could potentially be one of the worst storms to make landfall in the islands in 22 years, according to the National Weather Service. ADVERTISING Should Hurricane Iselle continue on its current
Should Hurricane Iselle continue on its current path, it could potentially be one of the worst storms to make landfall in the islands in 22 years, according to the National Weather Service.
“If it (Iselle) comes in as forecasted, the last time we were hit with that level of winds was back in ‘92 with Hurricane Iniki,” said Kevin Kodama, a hydrologist with the weather service in Honolulu.
Iniki largely bypassed the Big Island in 1992, but slammed Kauai, causing an estimated $1.8 billion in damage.
“Right now, (Iselle) is a pretty strong system. It’s expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it gets closer to the islands in the Thursdayish timeframe. But right now, the factors that would help weaken it are not really that strong. It’s scheduled to arrive as a fairly powerful storm.
“This thing is gonna bring the triple threat: high surf, high winds and heavy rain — all in one package. And as if that’s not bad enough, it’s got (Tropical Storm) Julio right behind it. That will make things doubly bad. It (Julio) is still a ways out, so there’s a lot of uncertainty. … But we’re looking at the potential for two very significant impacts.”
Iselle remains a Category 2 storm packing 105 mph winds Tuesday as it continues its westward trek toward the Hawaiian Islands.
Iselle is located some 965 miles east-southeast of Hilo, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. The storm is moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Iselle is expected to weaken over the next couple of days and reach the Big Island as a tropical storm some time Thursday afternoon.
The storm is expected to bring heavy rain, high surf and strong winds to the Big Island beginning as early as Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service. Surf is expected to steadily increase along the Big Island’s windward coast as the storm approaches. Surf heights of 10 to 20 feet are expected Wednesday ahead of Iselle, with larger surf possible Wednesday night and Thursday.
The combination of the high surf with high tides in Hilo Bay, as well as other areas, could cause coastal flooding along low-lying areas, the service cautioned. A 2.5-foot high tide is forecast at 12:30 p.m. Wednesday for Hilo Bay. On Thursday, the bay will see a 2.75-foot high tide at 1:20 p.m.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast models currently indicate a 52 percent chance of tropical storm force winds affecting Hilo, a 46 percent chance of tropical storm force winds in Kailua-Kona and a 39 percent chance of tropical storm force winds affecting South Point between Thursday afternoon and Friday. Tropical storm force winds — also referred to as damaging winds — range between 39 and 73 mph.
The models also show a 5 percent chance of hurricane force winds — wind speeds of 74 mph or greater — for Hilo and a 3 percent chance of hurricane force winds in Kailua-Kona during that same time frame. There is a 3 percent chance of hurricane force winds for South Point.
Hawaii County Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira said Monday that he and other public safety officials were closely monitoring weather forecasts, and he anticipated having a better idea by this morning concerning the intensity of the storm and its arrival time.
“We’re still anticipating that we’ll see tropical storm conditions on the Big Island,” he said. “They’re forecasting moderate winds in the 50 (to) 60 mph range, with rain and thundershowers. We also expect surf and surge, with 10-to-15-foot surf along the eastern coastlines.”
Oliveira recommended that the public pay close attention to various media sources, including westhawaiitoday.com, throughout the week, calling this a good opportunity for families to go over their emergency response plans and to ensure that they have enough food, water and supplies to meet their needs for more than a week, in the event that barge travel to the islands is impeded by the storm.
“If we’re affected by the weather affecting the harbors, that could impact commodities coming in and out of the island. In Hawaii, we stress having seven to 10 days of food and rations, compared to what the Red Cross recommends on the mainland, which is three days,” he said. “We’re also stressing not to wait to the last minute.”
Dan Brinkman, regional interim CEO for the eastern region of the state’s public health system, said Monday afternoon that hospital emergency response teams were monitoring the storm and going over response plans.
Meanwhile, with the state’s primary elections scheduled for Saturday, Hawaii County Elections Office Administrator Pat Nakamoto said she had been in contact with the state’s chief elections officer, who will continue to assess the situation.
“Right now, because it’s still early, we’re still gathering information from Civil Defense, and at this point we’re kind of at a wait-and-see point,” she said.
Foul weather has, at times, created headaches for voters in years past, “but nothing severe enough to where elections were canceled or postponed or anything,” she added.
After Iselle passes the Big Island, another system, Tropical Storm Julio, is expected to arrive on Saturday or Sunday. The storm, as of 5 a.m. Tuesday was located 1,145 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and was packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, according to forecasters. The storm, which was moving west at 13 mph, is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.
“After Iselle, we’re not safe,” CPHC Forecast Meteoroligist Tom Birchard told West Hawaii Today on Monday. “Even if Iselle is a near miss, Julio still exists.”
For more information on hurricane preparedness, click here.
West Hawaii Digital Content Editor Chelsea Jensen contributed to this report.
Email Colin M. Stewart at cstewart@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
