KEEP A WEATHER EYE

Even if the trend of a quiet Central Pacific hurricane season continues in 2012, forecasters are again cautioning residents not to be complacent.

“It’s best to realize the threat is real. While we don’t get (hurricanes) a lot, people need to remember they have been very devastating when they’ve occurred in the state of Hawaii,” said Mike Cantin, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. “Just because it’s been a while, doesn’t mean the chance of a hurricane making landfall (in Hawaii) isn’t still there.”

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone, which includes tropical depressions and storms and hurricanes, making direct land fall in the state is about one-half of 1 percent, while a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean has a one in three chance of hitting the U.S. East Coast, Cantin said. He noted differences in land area as well as high pressure systems that hover above the state, which tend to push storms south of the islands, as probable reasons for fewer storms hitting the state.

Hawaii Island, according to historical records, has been hit once by a probable hurricane, Cantin said, explaining that in the late-1800s a storm named the Kohala Cyclone clipped North Hawaii and eastern Maui causing damage to trees and homes. Three hurricanes, and a handful of depressions and storms, have hit since the 1950s including Dot in 1959, Iwa in 1982 and Iniki in 1992.

“The Pacific (Ocean) is huge and here we are on these tiny little dots, little islands, so the odds are a lot less,” he said. “But, it only takes one, and the chances are there.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu will officially present its 2012 forecast during a press conference at 10:30 a.m. today. The annual forecast contains a prediction of the number of storms that could pass through the Central Pacific as well as the probability for a below-, at- or above-normal season.

The Central Pacific Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Based on 41 years of data, Cantin said, the most active months for tropical cyclones fall between July and October. Only February and May have not seen storms.

On average, the Central Pacific annually sees four to five tropical cyclones, Cantin said. Last year, two to four were predicted with just one, Tropical Storm Fernanda, reaching the Central Pacific before fizzling out.

Named Central Pacific tropical cyclones for 2012 will begin with Pewa, which means the tail of a fish, shrimp of lobster, according to the center, which noted Hawaiian names are assigned only to storms forming within the Central Pacific area. No cyclones have formed in the Central Pacific since Omeka in late 2010.

Many factors affect the level of tropical cyclone activity from year to year. Among them are El Niño, which correlates with warmer ocean temperatures that cause increased tropical cyclone activity and late season storms, and La Niña, which features cooler waters and historically has produced below normal seasons, Cantin said.

Currently, the Pacific Ocean is seeing neutral La Niña conditions that will likely transition later in the summer to El Niño, Cantin said. La Niña has been in effect for the most part of two years.

“There’s no strong signal either way — we’ll have to wait and see how it goes,” he said. “But, we know that we’re getting out of the quiet scenario.”

But even if 2012 ends up being a quiet season, or at least the prognosis today calls for a quiet hurricane season, Cantin as well as Hawaii County Civil Defense Administrative Officer John Drummond advised residents to prepare well ahead of time. A list of items to include in a home survival kit as well as where to find evacuation centers on Hawaii Island follows.

“Work now, get ready and keep it all together because even if it could be quiet season, a tropical cyclone can happen any time of year,” Cantin said. “If it does happen, you don’t know how long it will take to get the supply lines up.”

For more information on the 2012 Central Pacific hurricane season, visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s website at prh.noaa.gov/cphc.