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HILO — Two thousand six hundred. That’s how many Big Island students could potentially be left on the side of the road next year if legislators approve a $20 million schools transportation budget reduction currently under consideration.

The state Department of Education was expected to send home with students a memo on Friday detailing the plan, but decided Thursday evening to wait. “(The DOE) has decided to hold off on distributing this memorandum to parents and students in order to review and consider the potential impact of implementing internal restrictions for non-school level funding as well as repurposing other funds for student transportation costs,” reads an email sent Thursday evening by DOE spokeswoman Sandy Goya.

According to the memo that the DOE had planned to send home to parents, “The final state budget is expected to be approved by the Legislature on May 3, 2012. A likely outcome is that most regular school bus service will not be offered in school year 2012-13. … In preparation for next school year, parents who planned to have their children ride the regular school bus should begin exploring alternative transportation options to and from the (listed schools).”

The proposed cuts come at least partly in response to legislators’ concerns that school bus contracts have increased dramatically in price over the last four or five years, said Brian DeLima, the Big Island representative on the state Board of Education.

“I think the Legislature is appropriately concerned about the magnitude of the increases over the last few years,” he said. “We’re dealing with a situation where there are existing contracts that are coming up for renewal. The concern is that there is not enough competition between various companies that is generating any significant savings. There’s a lack of competitive bidding. And that probably has contributed to extensions of contracts and increases of the costs over the years.”

The amounts of some contracts had almost doubled within the last five years, he added.

Among the 38 percent of Big Island students that could lose bus service in the plan that was being considered are those at:

• all middle/intermediate and high schools;

• elementary schools De Silva, Haaheo, Hilo Union, Holualoa, Kahakai, Kalanianaole, Kapiolani, Kaumana, Keaukaha, Kealakehe, Waiakea, and Waiakea Waena.

Among the exceptions would be Pahoa High & Intermediate, Keaau High, Keaau Middle, and Ka‘u High and Pahala Elementary. Schools on Kauai, Maui, Molokai and Oahu would also be affected.

In a Thursday phone interview, Randy Moore, the DOE associate superintendent for school facilities and support services, said that he had been surprised by the relative lack of response from Hawaii parents concerning the proposed cuts.

“That is kind of interesting,” he said. “Are people not reading the newspaper, or are they reading it and saying it’s just a lot of bluffing, or are they reading it and saying this is just not going to happen? I don’t know.”

While student safety would obviously be one area that could potentially be impacted by the cuts in bus service, with more students walking to school, an even bigger concern could be resulting traffic in and around school zones, Moore said.

“Safety is certainly an important interest,” he said. “Nationally, the school bus is still the safest way to get to school. It’s safer than biking, safer than your older brother driving you, it’s safer than walking.

“But I’m not sure there are going to be all that many more students walking to school. Right now, if you’re close enough to walk, you probably already walk anyway. But it will probably increase congestion at pickup and dropoff times around the schools, with parents driving. It will increase traffic generally, taking children to school. Traffic congestion is going to be the biggest issue.”

DeLima said the Board of Education’s hope is that legislators will agree to continue to fully fund the bus transportation system to prevent disruption of services. That would allow the school system to continue to explore options for cutting costs. But one thing that won’t happen is for the BOE to allow classroom instruction to suffer, he insisted.

“We’re not gonna fund bus transportation by taking monies from the classroom,” he said.

Options for addressing the high costs include having the Legislative auditor audit the bus contracts, or changing school schedules to allow a tiered pick-up system, whereby bus drivers would take on multiple school routes, DeLima said.

“We’ve asked the Department to run the numbers about purchasing the buses and then leasing them out for someone else to operate. But it’s unclear if that is a cheaper idea. Or parking the buses at the schools,” he said.