“It could be a long haul,” Sabato said. “You know the ending, but you don’t know how beaten up Romney will be.”
BY DAVID LIGHTMAN, LESLEY CLARK AND WILLIAM DOUGLAS | MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS
ORLANDO, Fla. — Mitt Romney is poised to win big in today’s Florida Republican primary, a victory that would move him an important step closer to the party’s presidential nomination.
About 2 million people are expected to cast ballots in the biggest primary of the 2012 campaign so far. Most polls suggest a double-digit Romney victory over his three rivals, and the former Massachusetts governor is likely to tout a strong showing as proof that he has broad appeal to a diverse electorate.
But the race won’t be over.
“A Romney victory will leave us where we thought it was several months ago, with Romney the likely nominee. But a lot of Republicans still are not reconciled to that idea,” said Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives, had hoped to capitalize on the momentum from his South Carolina landslide over Romney on Jan. 21. The two began last week in a virtual Florida tie in most polls.
But the well-funded Romney camp unleashed an ad barrage questioning Gingrich’s ethics and work for mortgage titan Freddie Mac. And Romney attacked Gingrich sharply in two televised debates, while Gingrich’s performances failed to provide the boost that two South Carolina debates had given him there. Last, iconic figures from the GOP establishment — from former presidential nominees John McCain and Bob Dole to the late William F. Buckley’s National Review — pronounced Gingrich erratic and unfit for the presidency.
The attacks scored. Polls tell the tale: Romney holds a 12.5 percentage-point lead, according to an average of nine surveys taken from last Tuesday through Sunday — all after the first Florida debate — compiled by Real Clear Politics, a nonpartisan website. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted Friday through Sunday had Romney ahead among every subgroup of voters: conservatives, evangelicals, young, old, rich, poor and middle class.
Gingrich has vowed to stay in the race until the August convention. Texas Rep. Ron Paul made only a token effort in Florida, but he’s mounting a strong effort in Nevada, the site of the next caucus, on Saturday.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum all but abandoned his Florida effort over the weekend. He’s expected to be in Nevada today.
Romney alone has the organization and the money needed to blanket each competitive state with ads and workers. He raised $24 million in the fourth quarter of last year, far more than any of his rivals.
In Florida, Romney and a “super” political action committee that’s backing him have spent $15.9 million on TV ads so far, while Gingrich and his supporters have spent about $4 million, according to data compiled by NBC.
Because of the Republicans’ complex delegate-selection rules, no one is likely to amass the 1,144 delegates needed for nomination until at least April.
“It could be a long haul,” Sabato said. “You know the ending, but you don’t know how beaten up Romney will be.”