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What would eruption on Kilauea’s Southwest Rift Zone look like?

The Southwest Rift Zone of Kilauea is often overlooked as a source of eruptions, because the volcano’s East Rift Zone is so much more active. The Southwest Rift Zone, however, is far from dead. It has had recorded eruptions in 1823, 1868, 1919-1920, 1971 and 1974. These eruptions occurred before the advent of GPS, so most of the information we have on pre-eruptive sequences and conduit geometry comes from seismology.

To get an estimate of the pathways that magma takes in the Southwest Rift Zone, we can look at the location of shallow earthquakes recorded by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory since 1959. Those earthquakes outline a structure that emerges from the south part of Kilauea Caldera, trending due south toward the Koae Fault Zone. The earthquakes then trace a structure that trends southwest along the Koae Fault Zone to a region about halfway to the coast. Interestingly, the structure that is outlined by shallow earthquakes is offset to the south by 2 to 2.5 miles from the line of eruptive vents at the surface of the Southwest Rift Zone.

By looking at the earthquakes that occurred prior to eruptions in 1971 and 1974, we may be able to gain clues into what to expect before the next Southwest Rift Zone eruption. Prior to the September 1971 eruption, several swarms occurred months ahead of time, especially in the summit caldera and in the area to the south. Seismicity also extended sparsely to Mauna Iki and, at times, south to the coast. This was interpreted as a slow magma intrusion into the Southwest Rift Zone.

The summit was highly inflated, and a short-lived summit eruption occurred just a month before the 1971 Southwest Rift Zone eruption. When the 1971 Southwest Rift Zone eruption finally started, earthquakes were shifted west of the pre-eruption earthquakes in locations between surface fissures. The earthquakes migrated downrift at about 0.3 mile per hour. The pattern of seismicity and summit tilt suggests the 1971 eruption was fed from the shallow part of the summit reservoir to the west of the typical Southwest Rift Zone earthquake source area.

In contrast, the 1974 eruption follows the structure most obviously outlined by historical seismicity. About seven days before the eruption, a vigorous earthquake swarm — associated with deflationary tilt and, very likely, a small intrusion into one or both rift zones — occurred in the upper Southwest Rift Zone and upper East Rift Zone. Beginning Dec. 31, another swarm began at the eruption site south of the summit caldera at about the 1.6 miles depth.

Tremor soon replaced discrete earthquakes, and about nine hours after the swarm began, an eruption occurred on the uppermost Southwest Rift Zone. Seismicity continued downrift, following a propagating dike, for approximately 9 miles at a rate of about 0.8 mile per hour to the Kamakaia Hills. No extrusion of lava was recorded away from the initial eruption site, though seismicity continued downrift of the dike terminus for weeks after the eruption.

Several earthquake swarms have been recorded on the Southwest Rift Zone since 1974. In 2006, inflation associated with an increase in shallow seismicity in the area was detected using GPS and satellite data. Even over the past month, there has been a small increase in the number of earthquake to the south of the summit caldera.

In the future, when eruptive activity returns to the Southwest Rift Zone, scientists will look to past eruptions to give them clues to look for. Since the last Southwest Rift Zone eruption in 1974, the seismic network has improved dramatically, and many new technologies, such as GPS and InSAR, have become available. That leaves HVO with many tools to forecast and monitor any future eruption in ways not previously possible. Out of those observations will come a better understanding of the mechanics of the Southwest Rift Zone.

Kilauea activity update

A lava lake within the Halemaumau Overlook vent produced nighttime glow visible from the Jaggar Museum overlook and via HVO’s webcam during the past week. The lake level fluctuated in response to a summit deflation-inflation cycle, ranging between about 80 to 200 feet below the floor of Halemaumau.

On Kilauea’s east rift zone, breakouts from the Peace Day tube remain active above and at the base of the pali and on the coastal plain, and small ocean entries are active on both sides of the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park boundary. In addition, the Kahaualea flow, fed directly from a spatter cone on the northeastern edge of Puu Oo’s crater floor, continues to advance slowly toward the northeast across a plain of 1980s-era aa flows.

There were no felt earthquakes in the past week on the Island of Hawaii.

Visit the HVO website for Kilauea, Mauna Loa and Hualalai activity updates, recent volcano photos, recent earthquakes and more; call 967-8862 for a Kilauea summary; email questions to askHVO@usgs.gov.

Volcano Watch is a weekly article and activity update written by scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.