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Chance of ‘megadrought’ in US Southwest now 50 percent, study concludes

Updated: 
August 30, 2014 - 6:02am

The chance of a “megadrought” gripping the Southwest for more than 30 years has increased to 50 percent, scientists say, which means bad news for California’s already parched landscape.

The odds of a 10-year drought afflicting the southwestern U.S. have increased to 80 percent, according to a new study by Cornell University, the University of Arizona and the U.S. Geological Survey.

Whatever happens, California is likely to see prolonged drought and drier conditions, especially in the southern portion of the state, said Toby Ault, Cornell assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and lead author of the study, which will be published next month in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.

The current drought, he said, is a preview of what will “happen in the future in climate change.”

“I am not trying to say this is imminent,” he said, “but the risk is high.”

Nearly 82 percent of California is experiencing “extreme” drought — the fourth harshest on a five-level scale measured in a weekly U.S. Drought Monitor reports. But roughly 58 percent of the state is facing worse, “exceptional” drought conditions.

Using climate model projections, researchers determined that prolonged drought would probably hit New Mexico and Arizona as well as California. On the other hand, the chances for the same conditions affecting parts of Idaho, Wash