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Forecasters: Tropical depression could form off Mexico’s west coast


Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1,400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California is becoming better organized, National Hurricane Center forecasters in Miami say. A tropical depression could form within the next couple of days.

Forecasters said environmental conditions will continue to be conducive for development during the coming days as the system moves west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph, forecasters said Wednesday. They gave the system a 80 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and an 90 percent of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

Forecasters are also keeping tabs on another area of low pressure that is expected to form several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico. Some development of this system is possible by the weekend as it moves west-northwest. They gave the system no chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within the coming 48 hours and a 50 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next five days.

An additional area of low pressure could also form during the next couple of days several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, forecasters said. They gave it a near zero percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the coming 48 hours and a 20 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the coming five days.

Forecasters are also monitoring an area of low pressure that is producing disorganized showers about 1,300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Further development of the system is expected during the next couple of days as it moves toward the Central North Pacific Basin. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu is also monitoring this system.

They gave it a 30 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the coming 48 hours and a 50 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

National Hurricane Center officials in May predicted 14 to 20 named storms and seven to 11 hurricanes — including three to six major hurricanes — to form this year in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Overall, they gave the 2014 season a 50 percent chance of being above normal, 40 percent chance of being near-normal and a 10 percent chance of being below normal.

The Eastern Pacific averages 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes each year, according to the center.

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began May 15 and ends Nov. 30.